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The Italian Senate has voted to expel former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi from parliament over his conviction for tax fraud. The 77-year-old politician could now face arrest over other criminal cases, as he has lost his immunity from prosecution. Ahead of the vote, Mr.Berlusconi warned, though, that he would remain in politics. Mr.Berlusconi was convicted of tax fraud in October 2012. He will have to serve a one-year sentence, probably under house arrest - because of his age. Anna Momigliano, an American-educated Italian journalist, currently based in Milan with main interest in international politics and new media, talked to Voice of Russia about the consequences of the event.

According to Ms Momigliano, “it is extremely unlikely that Berlusconi will actually go to jail.”

“Even if you were a common person, in Italy you don’t go to jail that easily if you are over 70 years of age, and he has a very good lawyer. So, the personal consequences for Berlusconi will be very-very slight. He might face one year of house arrest, but even that is unlikely. The consequences mainly are political. He has led the Italian Conservative Party for more than 20 years and the Conservative Party without him is lost – they are split, they are withdrawn from the Government and they really don’t know where to put their heads,” - Ms Momigliano explained.

Talking about the plausible impact of Berlusconi’s party withdrawal from the Parliament, Ms Momigliano said: “In the immediate future the coalition Government will survive, because some Parliament members of Berlusconi’s party have split from the party and kept supporting the Government. This means that the left-wing Prime Minister Enrico Letta still has the number to govern. That said, this Government isn’t going to last very long, most likely we will have elections soon. And this is, of course, bad for Italy, because the economy, as you know, is very bad here and we keep having elections every one or two years and, of course, this is not good for business.”

Ms Momigliano said that it is hard to say whether Berlusconi still enjoys the support, because “over the years analysts have constantly underestimated Berlusconi’s popularity among the larger public. My general impression is that now people are very tired, they are worried about the economy, so his support isn’t as strong as it used to be. But I would not underestimate that.”