Your trusted source

Vladimir Putin’s visit to Baku was more like a PR move in support of Ilham Aliyev, who hopes to become the head of Azerbaijan for the third time after the elections of October 9. The move had a specific price: shares in Caspian gas fields and new arms contracts, writes the Russian publication of The New Times.

“Putin left with practically nothing, in the meantime, having showed an important pre-election support to Ilham Aliyev due to a mere visit. The Azerbaijani opposition is, in its turn, confused with the united candidate. But does that mean there is nothing and nobody for Aliyev to fear? Hardly so. Azerbaijani governing elite is about to split,” – writes the publication and notes that observers have recorded a growing influence of the Pashayev clan right after Ilham Aliyev came to power in 2003.

The New Times writes that many where sure then that the clash between the new elite and the army of Heydar Aliyev’s old supporters is inevitable. Right after the presidential elections in 2008, based on the anonymous data of The New Times, which stands close to the Azerbaijani government, Pashayevs wanted Ilham Aliyev to limit himself with two terms as stated in Azerbaijani Constitution. But they didn’t succeed; there was a referendum lifting the limit of terms in Azerbaijan in March of 2009. The ruling party “New Azerbaijan;” Ilham Aliyev was nominated at the convention.

The publication notes that “Ilham Alliyev probably remembers how Moscow saved him from an imminent crash.” “It was before the parliamentary elections of Azerbaijan in November 2005. The success of “colorful revolutions” in Georgia, Ukraine and Kirgizstan, as well as the murder of the editor in chief of “Monitor” magazine Elmar Huseynov, known for its sharp attacks against Azerbaijani authorities, made thousands of opposition-oriented citizens come out to the streets. There were clashes with the police in the center of Baku,” writes the article.

However, two weeks before the elections Moscow sent reinforcement to Azerbaijani authorities, more specifically, they sent the director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Levedev. The day after the elections on November 7 security forces easily handled the seated opposition protest.

Baku sources of The New Times insist that Kremlin was trying to replay the Abkhazian scenario in Azerbaijan and create a tandem, together with the controllability of one of the participants. Relations between Baku and Moscow started to deteriorate. However, the real crisis broke out in June 2010, when Belarus owed $187 million to “Gasprom,” Moscow refused to give deferral, writes the publication. Then, in response to Aleksander Lukashenko’s request Ilham Aliyev gave a $200 loan to Belarus.

“In summer of 2012 Baku made its own move: awaiting the end of the lease term of Gabala Radar Station, Azerbaijani authorities raised the rent price of the Radar Station from $7 million to $300 million. Russian military left the base,” reads the article.

Furthermore, according to the publication, the disputes between the Union of Azerbaijani Organizations of Russia (UAOR) and the All-Russian Azerbaijani Congress, fully under control of Baku, followed.

The additional intrigue, according to the publication, was introduced by the screenwriter residing in Russia, Rustam Ibrahimbekov, who decided to nominate himself as a presidential candidate against Ilham Aliyev.