Consolidating dictatorship and the MGIMO ‘‘caviar scientist’’ Stanislav Chernyavsky
It is always lamentable when academia is not impartial and independent but it is even sadder when they are “scientists” who are nothing but puppets in state sponsored propaganda. “Azerbaijan-ness and Stronger Democracy-Key Features of Aliyev’s Election Strategy” authored by Stanislav Chernyavsky appeared to prove that not only exists the term “caviar diplomacy” but also a new term can be introduced- “caviar scientist”.
Dr. Stanislav Chernyavsky, Director of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the MGIMO University tried his best to decorate the presidential elections in Azerbaijan with a democratic appearance. Dr. Chernyavsky’s article carried three main messages: first the abolition of the limit of two consecutive terms for presidency was the will of the people, secondly the democracy and rule of law advance with the unlimited presidential terms, lastly, “Azerbaijan-ness”- an umbrella concept for protecting both Azerbaijan’s national interests and its democratic nature.
The 92% of the 77% turnout voted on March 18 2009 to allow unlimited presidential terms is a typical result of many authoritarian regimes and Azerbaijan is not an exception. The large voting turnout is chiefly guaranteed by the state coercive mechanisms. For example, in 2004, Lukashenko “the last dictator of Europe” won 77.3% of votes with about 90% participation, for identical constitutional change, lifting the limit to run for more than two consecutive terms .
After and before the referendum, condemnations hurried from human rights organizations, international organization and other interested parties. For example, the Human Rights House Network reported “The Referendum over Constitutional amendments in the Republic of Azerbaijan took place in an atmosphere of intimidation of voters and all of those who opposed the reform the constitution” .
Another fact that is dismissive about the willingness of Ilham Aliyev to take into account the will of people for running third time was the necessary 25% to pass the amendments. “On Wednesday 18 March, a Constitutional referendum was held in Azerbaijan. According to local Central Election Commission (CEC) the vote saw a turn-out of 64, 12 percent. Thus it can be called legitimate, as the referendum merely needs 25 percent to be passed” .
“I would argue that Ilham Aliyev and his team’s main achievement is that they have strengthened the country’s political system and democratic institutions…” Dr. Chernyavsky . That Ilham Aliyev and his clan have effectively strengthened their ruling system by introducing mechanism for unlimited re-election opportunity is clear. While strengthening the democratic institutions seems an absurd, as the democratic institutions are democratic only when there is separation and balance of the powers, which clearly is undermined by super-presidential system and acting president running for the third term in Azerbaijan.
The Venice Commission, in its opinion about the draft amendments to the constitution of Azerbaijan noted “The core of the rule of law is the separation of the powers. In a country with a presidential (or sometimes semi-presidential) system, powers tend to be concentrated on the President, while that of Legislature and Judiciary is relatively weaker. Therefore, the regular change of regime through process of election is the very method to prevent too strong a concentration of powers in the hands of President” .
“Azerbaijan-ness” according to Dr. Chernyavsky, the novel concept developed during Ilham’s father Heydar Aliyev rule was introduced recently by countries leadership “to protect the country from attempts to weaken it spiritually and physically, and at the same time to strengthen it as a unitary and democratic rule-of-law state” .
Having already proved the incompatibleness of democracy and rule of law with unlimited presidential power with re-election bonus it is important to understand the type of torch that Heydar Aliyev passed to his son Ilham. “Azerbaijan-ness” is a void political term that Dr.Chernyavsky is trying to insert for justifying the need for continuation of Aliyev rule for “protecting” the “spiritual and physical strongness” of Azerbaijan. The only thing that inexperienced politician Ilham has inherited from his KGB strongman father other than the seat of president in 2003 was the surname. And Ilham Aliyev did everything he could to keep his father’s name alive, for example during his rule he has erected statutes dedicating to him from Tashkent to Mexico City . He has also organized on May 10th of 2013, a “Flower Day”, dedicated to the 90th anniversary of national leader Heydar Aliyev with thousands of flowers .
To conclude, it is very possible that during and after the presidential elections in Azerbaijan which many believe will conclude with the re-election of Ilham Aliyev for his third presidential, the “caviar scientists” like Dr.Chernyavsky will pop-up to explain the “peculiarities” and “uniqueness” of Azerbaijani democracy. The mantra of “stability and prosperity” typical not only for Azerbaijan but also for any other authoritarian country such as Belarus, Saudi Arabia, North Korea is yet to be heard.