SOUTHERN CAUCASUS AT TRANSFORMATION’S DOOR
What Russia has done is to force Georgia to keep peace. Though Georgian mass media keep spreading news that Russian troops still remain in Gori and other Georgian territories, and fulfilling military activities, Russian President has announced that “forced recovering activities of peace” was over. After the announcement the reaction of expert groups was definite: Georgia lost a war stipulated by itself.
To us such assessment is not accurate considering time. Russian-Georgian (currently the conflict can be called Russian-Georgian and not Georgian-Ossetian or Georgian-Abkhazian) armed forces’ conflict did not suggest capitulation of any side; hence the complete defeat of Georgia and the complete victory of Russia can not be completely considered about. It is more accurate to study the achievements and the loss of the sides after the four-day war. From another side, taking into account the multiple sides of the conflict, it is important to observe the changes in various levels. The important thing is to observe the inner political level.
Though these points are not so much talked about, one thing is obvious every side used current conflict to solve its inner political local problems. Mikhail Saakashvili, the President of Georgia who had some problems with his image managed to join Georgian society round him. Mass meeting with thousands of Georgians directed against Russia, attitudes of Georgian opposition towards Georgian authorities, support of presidents of some countries, all these has proved that Saakashvili managed to join the isolated society. Yet the complete developments and image of these will be possible to guess after some time. For today one thing is clear: Saakashvili managed to regain support of the majority.
Considering Russian experience it becomes clear that they made the recent activities to serve their inner political problems. All the fulfilled activities and their coverage through media showed and proved that this is not the president in the country who makes final decisions. What is revealed out is that the Prime Minister of the country Vladimir Putin leads Armed forces and the President Dmitri Medvedev has some ceremonial mission. And the most interesting thing is that Russian media pointed this markedly, to conclude Russian society needed a message to be spread over. After his appointment as the Prime Minister of the country, Mr. Putin has been busy with social-economic problems; hence it was impossible to prove what has been proved. During those three month majority of Western and Russian society have felt concerned with Putin’s sovereignty. Georgian developments have also stated that it is too early to withdraw Mr. Putin. Besides, the most effective resource to keep power is to threat the world.
As for the authorities of Southern Ossetia, in particular the president of this not recognized republic Edward Kokoiti has gained points also. It is already ten years he chairs the country but according to the Russian media he has not been trustworthy by his people. Most possibly he would have been exchanged by another politician. But today local people have joined round their president against Georgia.
Another interesting fact is that any development in any point of the world has its impact on American reality. This time again Russian-Georgian conflict has much to do with American experience. Presidential candidate John McCain’s rate has been enormously increased after his positions announced against Russia, whereas another candidate Obama once was offering step by step cooperation with Russia. Hence, today, McCain is the most wanted candidate.
To conclude, the sides used the created situation to solve their inner problems. Hence, we can say that the conflict was profitable for every side. Find the development of the story in other issues of our publication.