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Energetics has recently become one of the issues of the first priority in the world, independent of the energetic resources and capacities of the given country.

Undoubtedly, the question is risen because of the current and future demands as well as for prospective purposes. Naturally the whole world invents enormous efforts in dealing with energetic problems also; lots of possibilities and versions are being discussed.

The efforts in this area in the RA have also become active: a great number of ways are being offered; however, unfortunately they are not distinct for the future of the energetics of the RA.

For the RA, the most essential prerequisite for independence is the availability of independent energetic system, thus it is vital to make it available for the public as well.

In order to obtain certain clarifications and to make them available for the public, we have interviewed Mr. H. S. Karayan, member-correspondent of the National Academy of Sciences of the RA, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Professor of the Yerevan State University.

Mr. H. S. Karayan is famous for his more than ten publications (since 1988), where a number of predictions made by him have been accepted by the world today. Moreover, he has undertaken and has been the author of the «Draft of the Strategic Program of Energetics of the RA», submitted to the Government of the RA (in 1992).

Question: Mr. Karayan, would you please firstly make comprehensible analysis on the procedures relating to energetics in the world, namely in Armenia

Answer: Well, the word «comprehensible» is just to the point, since I am not an expert of this issue. Internationally, the causes of the present situation are classified into two groups: internal, depending exceptionally on the field of energetics (sources of energy, energy output, output of energy production means and energy sources, power-generating materials, energy exploitation, etc.) and external, depending on the correlation between energetics and other fields. Naturally, even in case of complex and comprehensible analyses of the situation it is volumetrical and hard work, demanding a lot of information from lots of sources. In this consideration, we shall try to present partial analysis aiming namely at the RA. Firstly, the major internal cause is the day-to-day increase of the demand for energetics (it is anticipated that in the forecoming 40 years a 6-7 fold increase will be recorded: a rise in the capacity of energy output up to 100 terawatt, i.e. capacity of about 100 000 nuclear power station). On the other hand, during this period the resources of traditional natural power-generating materials will practically be consumed. This means, that the alternative energetics is becoming obligatory. As an additional argument, it is worth mentioning, that Barak Obama disclosed the strategy of the energetics of the USA, which has partly been disguised so far suspending the construction of 26 licensed nuclear power stations and allocating several trillion USD to alternative energetics, mainly to silicium energetics.

Not discussing military, economic and political causes, let us mention several external causes which are familiar to the public.

The public is more aware of «greenhouse» effect, when «greenhouse» gases (e.g. CO2) create x-ray screen thus violating the dinamic x-ray balance with the extraterrestrial environment. This brings to the so-called global warming of the earth, when, besides the natural changes of the world temperature it increases additionally. This phenomenon is full of predictable bad consequences (e.g., melting of the polar ice-sheets), as well as many other non- predictable consequences.

The additional changes in ozone layers and violations of the dynamic balance of terrestrial accuracies have also the features of environmental protection.

Another disaster which increases day by day, i.e. oxygen shortage, is one more threat to the Earth. On one hand the oxygen consumption is steadily increasing (the rise of burnings in increasing production processes, including those of energetics, rise of the number of people and animals, etc.), on the other hand, oxygen generating means are decreasing, especially areas covered with forests.

Naturally, this endangers (tangibly) the wild life, however, the deviation of periodical phenomenon with the presence of oxygen from their natural processes (e.g. freezing process), which can have fatal consequences for the whole humanity.
All these phenomena mentioned are enough to conclude that both global ecological and energetic issues have global universal nature and are decisive for the future of humanity as well as any country.

Question: What is the situation of the solutions of this global issue?

Answer: The situation in the world (but not in the RA) is more then cheerful, the «tree» of the world energetics has many brunches. It is enough to mention that the number of the types of the acceptable ways of application has exceeded the dual number border; the number of each of their sub brunches aspires to triple number. And still this tree has a tendency to bust. This type of rich range provides the opportunity not only to solve the problem of world energy supply, but also subject it to optimization taking into account the demands of other fields, namely, economical, military security, ecological, as well as other demands depending on other circumstances relevant to this given country.

However, depending on the significance of the usage, the conditions on energetics are also changing. The major fields of energy consumption are as follows: space, vehicles (motion means) and terrestrial stationary.

The field of space demands little weight and small sizes, high productivity, reliability and to be x-ray proof, however it doesn't have any essential environmental restrictions and the economical side is not the priority.

For the field of vehicles the priority is the ecological demands, especially in respect to air and road transportation means; in this case the sources of energy generating materials are important.

The field of terrestrial stationary is the major and greatest responsible of general energetics, thus, except environmental aspect, the priorities here are economical (the price coast of 1 kwt capacity), recourses of raw materials, pace of production (production capacity), territorial usage and the territorial distribution and other similar demands which are not typical to the previous ones or not important for them.

Obviously, each of the above mentioned criteria has its own approach and its own solution, which, however, can even be in conflict with each other. For example, for the transformators of the solar energy in space stations it is beneficial to have bigger coefficient (today sources of 50% and more coefficient are being used) independent of the price and production time. The terrestrial, on the contrary, demands the one which is cheapest and quickly produced, with the coefficient of not more then 30% (not to violate unpredictably the ecodinamics) and more than 20% for economical efficiency (i.e. two-sided restriction is available), more than 50 years of long life. However, certain strategies have been worked out (and are still being worked out and developed).

The strategy of the space energetics constitutes (Solar) the photovoltaic transformation of the x-ray energy into electrical which has no rival today and will still remain such for a long time (at least until the time when the photon engines will be created).

The market belongs to the superpowers and the small and medium powers can only have academical importance. The strategy of vehicle energetics is multy constituent, the main constitutes of which are natural energy generating materials, nuclear reactors (for water transportation means), fossil fuel (starting from 15%-100% mixture), hydrogen and partly electrical. The center of gravity now and in the nearest future will be on the mixture of biological fuel and hybrid means, however, I believe that the future belongs to that of the hydrogen, which is convenient for all purposes (ship, airplane, car, etc.), as well as can provide the necessary capacities. Here the market will be competitive.

The terrestrial stationary energetics is appropriate to present in the scale of the sub tree of the strategic tree, which is now either obviously or non obviously accepted almost in all courtiers, except several underdeveloped pseudo countries.
It has the following structure: «... the major and vital component of the strategy of economics is energetics, and that of the energetics, is the terrestrial stationary, in the latter the alternative one, in the alternative one, the photovoltaic, in the photovoltaic one, the cellicium one».

It is enough to mention, that in the end of the 20th century the countries of the Great Eight aimed to (and there are already some projects worked out) create a complex electrical network of 45-50 terawatt capacity of the silicium photovoltaic solar-stations, the capacity of which is 3 times more than the presently operating aggregate capacity. It will make the 40-45% of the general capacity.

Question: Can we think in the future we will have a general energetic system?

Answer: I think so, because this is the best version. It will be assessed by one parameter, which will be perpendicular to the difference between energies given to, and taken from, the network.
If it is positive, the country will be energetically independent, otherwise, it is dependant. In this latter case the application of distribution of proportions is not excluded. However, this doesn't mean that the energy production of the given country is only for the global network. Any country will also have other types of energy productions strategic importance, as well as autonomous networks.

Question: Will the activities of different countries in the field of energy production be also the same?

Answer: No. There will only be generally accepted standards and ecological and safety restrictions. In all other respects every country will act according to its possibilities, its economical structure and appropriateness. For example, if a country has a big water potential, e.g. the Amazon, the Lean, the Mississippi and other similar rivers, then the hydroenergetics will be a part of its strategy, since it will justify the purposeful developments of educational, scientific and technical, technological, manufacturing fields. Otherwise, if the water potential of the country doesn't meet the demands of at least several thousand MW capacities, then the hydro energetic system there will only be at the level of individual entrepreneurship.

For the same cause the usage of the wind energy is only justified in case when the 1-2% of its energy will satisfy the capacities of tens of thousand MW (getting energy from wind of more strength is not ecologically secure and can result in unpredictable changes). For this purpose the ocean winds, the winds of the banks of the oceans and seas are convenient. There doesn't exist a bad type of energy production, there exists efficient and convenient type of energy, which is more appropriate to opportunities, and is in harmony with the programs of the country and the working style of the public of the given country. For example, the fossil fuel is convenient to Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, the Russian Federation, etc, but yet not convenient for Japan, Kyrgyzstan, the RA and other mountainous countries with small land resources.

Question: Which do you think is appropriate for the RA?

Answer: It is easy to answer your question by eliminating method, considering the abovementioned conditions, as well as special conditions for our country, i.e. not to buy, but produce maintain a stable and long-lasting position in the international market.

The judgments made on this basis show that for the alternative energetics (in some cases also general energetics) of the RA only the photovoltaic solar energetics can be strategically, in this stage, that of the silicium. Firstly, all the conditions are met. We can produce the stations «from sand to Station» with the whole procedure, the production storages of which are more than satisfactory, and the external market is not saturated (also practically non-saturable). The energy source is the Sun; 280-300 days per year is «solar» in Armenia, with approximately 10 hours of 1 square meter having more than 800 watt capacity, of which it is «permitted» to take 150 watt. This means that from the territory of 10x10 square km (the surface of Yerevan) it could be obtained 1500 MW capacity (on average 5000 MW) which is enough for the population of 5 million people. The production is the scientific basis, which is in accordance with the development program of economics, undertaken by the RA as well as the educational, scientific and technical, labor qualities of the population of the RA. At last, with the production of solar stations we can enter the foreign market which is not saturated (the demand exceeds the offer) as it has already been mentioned. Finally, both the production of the stations and the energetics based on these stations are independent. None of the types satisfy simultaneously all the conditions stated.

This information has been available since the 80's of the previous century; it was made available to the public and was many times submitted to the government of the RA. I have also submitted it many times. It is worth to show an honor to Authorities: they did not lay obstacles, their position was supporting however, and unfortunately they delayed and have not created a clear strategy so far. The main responsible for this shortcoming are our scientific and technical intellectuals who would have been obliged to take the role of creators of ideas, eliminators of errors and orientators for the nation and the authorities. Unfortunately, we couldn't find the power to get rid of small-minded way of performance, and often played the aversive role we even failed to orientate in such a question of vital importance as energetics. However, it is not late to start yet...

Question: In this case why do we hesitate if there is a factor of being late?

Answer: There are so many influential reasons that even if we delay insignificantly or act slowly we may stay in the situation of «out of game» obtaining the status of «shoes repairer». Perhaps each of these reasons individually have the possibility to overcome and liquidate but their joint influence, i.e. their raise will predictably have negative consequences which are practically insuperable. In order to give a complete answer to your question it is important to have a nationwide conference, thus we can only make judgments.

The cause of causes, I believe, is the comparison of the quality and characteristics of Armenian scientific and technical intellectuals with the essence and nature of the present society. Let me clarify my ideas. Not taking into account opinions about Armenian people by E. Kant, A. Pushkin and others, it is however important to consider the true sides of their quotations, which obtain big opportunities of manifestation in the present conditions.

Particularly some characteristics of our mentality possess these manifestations. Undoubtedly, Armenian mind is of high quality; however, it is not in accordance with the manifestation of mentality. For sure, each of us realizes and accepts the importance of the mentality of the value, i.e. the specter: person, family, state, nation, humanity, the maximum value of which for the small nations lies on the state and the nation. And each of us speak about us everywhere, blame everybody, blame the authorities, the manager, the neighbor, and the friend because of their «lack of state or national mentality». Meanwhile in our daily life we realize other values, when the priority is the person and the family, and the state and national values are in the last place, which is even not sufficient. The conflict of the speech and action is obvious. Similarly, we are courageous with our mind, creative and pioneer, whereas, we are unconfident, suspicious and slavish with our actions. Undoubtedly for this kind of shortcoming all of us as a nation bear the responsibility, but the major part of the fault belongs to the scientific and technical intellectuals as the «brain» of the nation. I don't agree with the opinions that it's not permitted or no opportunities are given, etc. One cannot be encouraged when trying to find the reasons of shortcomings among others, i.e. other countries, nations, celebrities who have died long time ago and others. In reality all these are because of our inconfidence, adaptability and lack of mental freedom. In this social system the major concern of our intellectuals is the approach towards partial, even personal factors, but not towards national, state and general. As a result there is no developed and adopted program of Armenian nation, thus the state (whose?), which cannot be substituted by partial national (what kind of? adjective) programs. Whereas it is the National program, which is the shield, by which the RA authorities must resist the internal dictations. We haven’t mould this shield and do not even try to do it. Moreover, it is the National program which should lead all our activities. These shortcomings have partly been liquidated by the Government of RA, which is the courageous scientific basis of the economic development of the country. Mechanically the scientific and technical high quality has been accepted as the basis. It is undoubtedly true, but is it enough for this purpose? It's a big issue. Since now we haven't done anything to promote this project. Instead, we have created the so-called «effect of pulverization», when our human, mental, economic, financial and other possibilities split, break into smaller particles, «dust», which becomes an obstacle for the production of means of energy production. Then it is the inconfidence towards the personal power, which is a kind of mental slavishness: has anyone performed it? Let them do, and then we'll try, let us do for others, with others and so on. This guarantees no more than following somebody, nothing else. In the result we live with the past, as there is no present and no future.

We frequently refer to Khorenatsi, Shirakatsi, Narekatsi, or world famous Hambartsumyan, Alikhanyan, Mergelyan, Saryan, and others, or we can say we constructed... but what about now? Have we repaired a school or planted a tree instead of the one cut down? We blame the others, for example the USA, Turkey, Russia, but not us, if we do not do more than used to do. Let us quote «Davit, move on ». It is already time. This step is the intellectuals with the support of the authorities.

Question: It is obvious, that in the nearest future the National program which you have stated, which the dictator is and the lighthouse, will not operate. In this case what ways exist for the energetics of the RA?

Answer: Fortunately, it is possible to have good strategy for the energetics, since it is of major priority and mainly has scientific and technical nature. We can work out an «indifferent» (invariant) and adjustable program, which can be in compliance with any logically grounded national program.

The major focus will be whether they are realizable and suitable for the RA. This doesn't mean to get isolated; on the contrary, it is important to focus on international market and energetics. Simply, it is important to have a definite direction which will be in line with the opportunities of the RA, is perspective and accepted by the world, be flexible, and have possibility for further development and free market.

Moreover, the state should inform about the adopted strategy in order to stimulate the investments. In this respect the Department of Physics and Astrology of the National Academy of Sciences of the RA and the Foundation of Alternative Energetics and Energetic Efficiency of the RA have already put a lot of efforts.

Question: Which do you think is the best direction?

Answer: There is no bad direction; there is appropriate and corresponding direction. I believe that the best suitable choice for the RA energetics and production strategy is photovoltaic solar energetics, in this stage it is the silicium energetics. This argument can be proved. The other types can have strategically importance or be realized by commercial principles.
As a conclusion please allow me to make some references from the program submitted to the Government by the National Academy of Sciences of the RA. The photovoltaic solar energy stations (PSES) are the best choice to make a part of the strategy in energetics, production, scientific and educational fields. In the domestic market coefficient the demand for means of energy production is 500 MW, the purchase of which means more than 10 billion dollars of financial export which, of course is not desirable. Here, the scientific and educational aspect has a role of animation but makes an inevitably important part of it. It is however impermissible to make the question an external issue not only in respect to inappropriate exportation of financial means but also in respect to the immigration of a part of the highly qualified youth.

The foreign market is practically unquenchable, very profitable and is a unique possibility to occupy a stable and everlasting niche in the world market, which means to implement, efficiently the economic policy undertaken by the government.
The direction of PSES has a big proportion of multiplicity, in consideration of each of the classes of which the module of average production capacity will provide 30000-50000 stable job places in the RA. This direction is also a good means to export intellectual commodities and other possibilities in the field of science and education. By the way, the financial investment which is required for the plant with 1000 MW output per year is carried out only once and does not exceed the limit of 1 billion dollars.

It is important that the direction of PSES can be realized with the «zero» technology of the whole process, i.e. from the raw materials up to the PSES, this means it is completely independent of the external world.
I believe that during the period of this hard crisis this can be an effective means of rescue, if our scientific and technical layers start the implementation of their mission, and the middle layers of the authorities minimises the obstacles of their activities at least until the end of the crisis. Let's hope this will happen.

Question: You are a representative of the layer, why don't you take measures? Moreover, there is some uncertainty, inconfidence and hopelessness in your answers, what is the reason?

Answer: You're right. I'm a representative of scientific and technical layer and I'm proud of it and I consider its shortcomings to be mine independent of the amount of my participation.

The case is that in this layer there is no a sole purpose, which in the layer has the same role, which burocracy have in authority layers. It is a big obstacle for any kind of ventures, since however old it will sound it has in his basis the high level of our intelligence. Due to the latter any version is being protected no matter they are suitable or not correct or incorrect. Recently a lot of stations with 10-20 KW capacity are being shown installed on different buildings. What for? Why? For the reason that we can buy an out-dated station paying for it several thousand dollars when it is only worth several hundred dollars? If yes then it is a process of having losses, however it is being protected. Actually, with Professor G.M. Mirzabekyan we installed this type of station in 1992 in Bazum, in order to show our ministers that it was not a fairy tale, and it is capable of welding and lighting tens of bulbs. We haven’t pointed it out because it was not our aim. Thus, can’t we come to conclusion that the purpose here was not the energetics of the RA neither was the economic growth, the purpose was something else. This is really disappointing. And you are right when you mentioned about some spirits of depression in my mood. Moreover, if we also consider the bureaucracy, which sometimes is becoming so ridiculous, in this case the spirits of depression can turn to depression, thus I can say that I am an optimist. I am a big optimist, since besides concrete project I have worked out a project of a basic scientific town to start in Dilijan and I hope it will be submitted for the consideration of the Government until I am alive. To prove what I have stated I would like to organize the presentation of my projects at any levels in any environment.

Question: Which is the most difficult obstacle to overcome in this case?

Answer: It may sound strange, but the main obstacle relates to the insufficiency of professional maintenance. This, on one hand, is the result of the professional structure of our society, the trend of which is not towards the better side, and the processes happening in the country which have a tendency to stipulate the immigration of the educated young people, on the other hand. The main reason for this disastrous phenomenon is not the economical side, as it is always being claimed; it is much more profound which I would not like to talk about.

Question: And what is your opinion about the construction of the new nuclear power station?

Answer: The major part of the question is political, thus I would not like to answer it. I believe we need it, but not on the account of the exploitation of the lithosphere.

Question: Are you an optimist in respect to the global issue of energetics?

Answer: I am more optimistic than pessimistic. The reason why I am not completely optimistic is that the solution to the problem assumes a close and real cooperation of the authorities and the scientific and technical intellectuals which currently is unpredictable. However, let’s hope for the best.

Correspondent: Thank you for the interview.
Mr. Karayan: Thank you.