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In the frames of Saint Petersburg international economic forum the meeting of the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliev is expected to take place.

A stream of information including the positive statements of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, anti-Armenian campaign of the Azeri, opposing announcements of official Baku fills our reality. A question needs to find answer whether there will be a breakthrough. Note that after the Prague meeting the co-chairs have been claiming that a definite breakthrough was expecting. Currently there won’t be any breakthrough.

For the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and for the expected breakthrough definite preconditions are needed and not a variant of solution (those preconditions which has been already discussed during the negotiations are limited).
There can be two preconditions – when the parties express political will and irrespective of the co-chairs’ dispositions, make agreement on a definite variant; and the second; when the co-chairs (in this case powerful countries) make agreements among themselves and press on the parties recommending them to come over a certain conclusion (remind: Yugoslavia and Arabic-Israeli conflict).

We guess the answer to the first variant is obvious: the parties are not ready to express political will. The evidence to it is the uncompromising and rough oratory of the parties in their in-house auditory. Do you think that Ilham Aliev who makes military oriented statements in his country is ready to make compromises by his own initiative? Of course, no. So, such a breakthrough is invalid.

Regarding the foreign pressure, it is believed, according to Azeri-Turkish campaign, that the international society – the co-chairs are going to press on the parties to come to a justified solution of the conflict. To tell the truth, it would be a right thing if the co-chairs pressed on Azerbaijan trying to explain them that for the fair solution of the conflict they should be modest and decent enough to keep faithful to their undertaken responsibilities, not to make threatening statements (in the address of neither Armenian nor the co-chairs), not to use this or that tribune to make false statements. They have not yet done it, but the co-chairs reminded Ankara that they have nothing to do with the conflict and that their active policy is a sort of obstacle for the advancement of the conflict. To do it, Bernard Fassier himself left for Ankara and the French Embassy to Turkey made a correspondent statement. This much from the campaign.

Now let’s speak about the situation in the region and the possible pressures of the powerful countries regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The co-chairs keep saying that their countries have the same disposition over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict but it does not mean that they agree on changing status-quo in the region and the reclassification of the forces. They certainly have different dispositions over this issue, which means that they can not have comprehensive approach to make a joint pressure.

First of all there are serious in-house political problems in Southern Caucasus. Note that those problems covering three countries are included in PACE agenda and will be discussed in June session of the Assembly. It is not believed that having such problems another issue will be discussed to make it even harder. Parties can make separate attempts but not joint and united pressure.

Another factor is the regional one. The powerful countries don’t look at the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a separate problem. For example, the United States discusses the problem in the frames of “Great Near East” initiative and the agreement over the NKR conflict needs agreements over many other elements too. Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan, Central Asia, geo-political disposition of Azerbaijan, and many other factors have direct links with the resolution of the NKR conflict.
P.S. Note that another serious obstacle to make a pressure is the world financial crisis for the international society, as the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict demands great financial resources as it imagines the international society.