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Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan traveled to the Belgian capital of Brussels on a working visit May 25-27. The full agenda of Presidents’ visit and the numerous meetings did not provide opportunity to analyze President Serzh Sargsyan’s discussions and statements duly.

Before referring to the President’s visit, we find it necessary to speak about the significance of the Belgian capital. This is necessary for profound comprehension of the full spectrum of President Sargsyan’s meetings.

Thus, besides being the capital of Belgium, Brussels is also the headquarters and capital of NATO and the EU. This modest city of European standards has deserved this status as it is situated in the crossline of the European civilizations – Romance and Germanic. Having inherited the rich historical traditions of both of them today Brussels has turned to one of the symbols of the united Europe. In the meanwhile, note that in terms of this the main “rival” of Brussels is the other Franco-Germanic city – Strasbourg, which is also associated with the European unity.

President's agenda in Brussels

Naturally, during his Brussels visit, President's meetings with the leadership of NATO, EU and Belgium, as well as the traditional meetings with the representatives of the Armenian community were scheduled. On May 25, President met with the NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. On the same day President Sargsyan had a working dinner with the President of the European People's Party Wilfried Martens, in the evening he met with the representatives of the Armenian communities of Belgium and the Netherlands.

The second day of President's visit was even fuller. On May 26 Serzh Sargsyan met with Karel De Gucht, European Commissioner for Trade. Later the Armenian President met with the President of the Belgian Senate Armand de Decker, as well as the President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso.

Afterwards, President Sargsyan had meetings with two members of the European Commission – European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn and Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy Stefan Fule. On the same day President visited ''Villa Ampen'' center, founded by the Pogosian Foundation.

The following day, May 27, the President had meetings with the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton, and the President of the EU Council Herman Van Rompuy.

Besides the meetings, during his Brussels visit Serzh Sargsyan had joint press conferences with Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Jose Manuel Barroso and Herman Van Rompuy.

During his visit to ''Villa Ampen'', President Sargsyan delivered a welcome speech.

Among a number of issues, President's discussions and statements mainly focused on Armenia-Turkey normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh settlement processes.

Armenia – West

Armenia-West formula is strictly conditional. Though NATO and EU headquarters are situated in Brussels and the members of the latter are mostly represented in the former one, currently Armenia-NATO, Armenia-EU interrelations are lying on quite different platforms and have quite different missions.

In terms of NATO, the stress lies on the military-political sphere, while the EU focuses on the economic one. However, in both Armenia-NATO and Armenia-EU relations there is one significant component: support to democratic governance and institutional reforms, humanitarian and value spheres.

All these issues as well as the ways of their further progress were discussed during President's meetings. During his meeting with Anders Fogh Rasmussen both the implementation of the Private Partnership Action Plan and the joint military drills and Armenia’s extended participation in NATO international peacekeeping activities were estimated as successful.

Highlighting the efficiency of the NATO-backed reforms implemented in the RA Armed Forces, President Sargsyan said Armenia is committed to continue collaboration with NATO allies and partner states in all the spheres the agenda includes: combat against international terrorism, protection of borders, peacekeeping mission.

Issues related to the relations with the EU were more actively raised. The discussions with the European Commission representatives focused on a wide frame of cooperation issues: signing a free trade agreement with the EU, security in the South Caucasus, EU Neighborhood Policy and Euro-integration issues.

To sum up, we would recall a part from President Sargsyan’s statement at a joint press conference with Herman Van Rompuy.

“The promotion of Armenia-EU high-level political dialogue is a speaking evidence of the existing common value system. Armenia-EU relations are at a dynamically developing stage. EU is of special significance to Armenia not only as an important role-player in the international field but as a side that renders multifaceted assistance to the implementation of reforms in different spheres of social life in our country.”

Armenia not principally against Turkey’s Euro-integration

It was beyond doubt the Armenian-Turkish normalization process would be raised during President’s Brussels meetings. First, here Europe’s stance towards the close borders goes with all the consequences coming: support and mediation in the process, etc.

Second, this is the EU-Turkey relations platform. In terms of this, Armenia-Turkey relations are both a kind of indicator for Europe (to check Turkey’s level of being-civilized) and a whip (to make pressure o Turkey if needed).

Therefore, it shouldn’t seem accidental that Europeans kept the issue in focus during the meetings with the Armenian officials.

As to President Serzh Sargsyan, this was his first visit to the West following his April 22 address over suspension of ratification process of Armenia-Turkey protocols and even though the West had hailed President’s decision, it was necessary to reaffirm Armenia’s disposition and give clarifications to the European officials over the causes. As the received response shows, President Sargsyan succeeded in doing this.

“Turkey has left no other choice for us but freeze the ratification process of the protocols. We have presented our comments over the issue, though, even this hasn’t made Turkey move forward,” President Sargsyan said in Brussels, highlighting that by putting forth preconditions and breaking the agreed terms, Turkey has spent its stock of being a reliable negotiating partner.

European officials hailed Armenia’s disposition and President’s decision as despite the existing hurdles, he has not closed the door for continuation of the dialogue.

The most important scene over Armenia-Turkey process, in which Europeans also showed great interest, however, found place in Serzh Sargsyan’s answer over Armenia’s attitude to Turkey’s EU membership attempts.

“Armenia would be only glad if Turkey could meet all the standards for EU membership as this will mean we deal with another, more reliable and stable country with values very close to us,” S. Sargsyan said.

Thus, the President stated that:

a) Today’s Turkey is an unstable country and unreliable partner

b) Turkey can meet EU standards only if it acquires the mentioned qualities and these should be expressed through the
commitment to fulfill agreements reached with Armenia.

Another point of the statement made at the presence of the EU President is that Armenia is not principally against Turkey’s EU membership.

Nagorno-Karabakh settlement format cannot be changed

Karabakh issue was the major focus of President’s Brussels statements, one of the highlights being the way and format of the settlement of the conflict.

President Sargsyan said and all his interlocutors agreed that the dispute should be solved through peaceful talks (note that China’s MFA also reaffirmed the same disposition last week).

“The OSCE Minsk Group has conducted and should continue to conduct Nagorno-Karabakh negotiating process,” Anders Fogh Rasmussen said. Jose Manuel Barroso, in turn, added:

“We are ready to continue supporting the Minsk Group-mediated process in the future as well.”

President Serzh Sargsyan highlighted at a joint press conference with Jose Manuel Barroso:

“Armenia thinks, there is serious work to be done in the negotiating process conducted in the frames of the Minsk Group. This requires from the sides will, commitment to give full solution to the issue and ability to find solutions.

Armenia doesn’t think that staging performances on separate scenes of the issue worldwide, while leaving aside the real workstyle and format, should be seen as a concern over the solution of the conflict.”

What the statement says is:

a) Armenia sees no alternative to the currently adopted format for the settlement of the conflict.

b) Any attempt to change or break the format is seen as a manifestation of evading form responsibility, extracting the process and deconstructive attitude.

c) It’s still early to speak about the urgent solution of the conflict within the framework of Minsk Group process as there is still much do be done.

As far as Turkey’s attempts to mediate the process and Azerbaijan’s demands are concerned, the President’s statement can be regarded as a kind of strict caution:

“Armenia doesn’t think that new mediator can help the process, moreover, it finds that thus, Turkey not only doesn’t help Azerbaijan but day by day decreases any perspective for its constructive role in the region.”

It’s impossible to eliminate the consequence without referring to the causes

Another point over Nagorno-Karabakh settlement was reaffirmation of Armenia’s disposition on the model of the solution of the issue.

“We want to once again stress that we were imposed Karabakh war. And the current situation is a result of a failed attempt to annihilate Karabakhi people. The consequences are impossible to eliminate unless the self-determination of Karabakhi people is solved. The main focus of the issue is the opportunity for the realization of the right to self-determination of Karabakhi people,” the President said in Brussels.

Thus, Serzh Sargsyan actually showed that the Armenian side does not at all disregard the problems the conflict brought, including the humanitarian ones (which the Europeans are particularly concerned about).

President also indicated that without elimination of the causes bearing these consequences, there would be no real opportunities to eliminate the latter.

Armenia has many times said and reaffirmed that the consequences of the conflict come from the ethnic cleansings and the use of aggression against Artsakh carried out by Azerbaijan. As it is known, Azerbaijan continues the same workstyle both on official and propaganda level.

This means under the current conditions by conserving the causes and eliminating the consequences, prerequisites for even bigger consequences will emerge.

Thus, the Armenian side finds that the consequences of the conflict can be referred to only after:

a) Azerbaijan recognizes the right to self-determination of Karabakhi people,

b) Nagorno-Karabakh people are given clear security guarantees.

Principally, this is what the President’s abovementioned statement said and it’s remarkable that European officials understood him, as it can be seen in Jose Barroso’s statement.

“Peaceful settlement should include all the main elements: the right of the return of those evicted, property right, right to self-determination, as well as guarantee of security and withdrawal of forces.”

No alternative to elections in Artsakh

Nagorno-Karabakh parliamentary elections were also raised during the Brussels meetings. Azerbaijan had again raised propaganda hysteria over the issue making different representatives of the international community voice statement on non-recognition of the elections.

At the initial stage Baku, of course, managed to obtain some remarks to carry out the propaganda. However, President Sargsyan prevented the attempts during his Brussels visit.

“For many years Nagorno-Karabakh has been forming legitimate power through elections. Naturally, during these years different institutions, including the EU, announced that they don’t recognize the elections, which, of course, sounds odd to us, though, we are trying to understand the causes,” president Sargsyan said.

“We are sure there is no alternative to the elections. The only alternative is that Karabakh be ruled by field commanders or other forces, and we are against it. So, we consider it quite normal that Nagorno-Karabakhi people can hold transparent, democratic elections.”

It’s hard to say whether the persons having spread pro-Azerbaijani statements can say anything to contradict this argument. Actually, this is why all the European officials expressed satisfaction after meeting with President Sargsyan and raising the issue, noting that they are not intent to interfere and the only thing they can do is support the negotiations conducted in the frames of the OSCE Minsk Group.



President Sargsyan touched upon another aspect: “Armenia thinks that the negotiating process could enter a new stage through NKR participation in it. Moreover, Nagorno-Karabakh parliamentary elections held last Sunday and the comments of the international observers once again proved that during this time Nagorno-Karabakh people were able to establish full-fledged democracy in the country, which can develop civilized relations with all its neighbors.”

Thus, Serzh Sargsyan highlighted that the conflict may be settled only in case of Karabakh participation and agreement while the will of Karabakhi people may be expressed only through the authorities they have elected.

At the same time, the President drew attention that election processes in Karabakh are more democratic and advanced than in some neighbor states, including Azerbaijan, and this was stated by a great many international observers.

And what is the alternative?

As said above, neither Armenia, nor the international community sees any alternative to the peaceful settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh issue. However, this does not mean at all that Azerbaijani authorities spreading bellicose statements will not choose adventure (at least to deepen own authoritarian regime or distract the public attention to reproduce some) and the military activities will not resume.

Today this is a less probable, but quite possible script.

So, how should the Armenian side react?

Actually, the answer is known and once Azerbaijan has already received response for its aggressive behavior. There is no doubt, the second attempt will have similar ending.

Though, note that during President Sargsyan’s Brussels visit, Azerbaijan’s militant stance met some practical counter effect.

First, Anders Fogh Rasmussen announced at a joint press conference with the Armenian Prresident that NATO is not intent and is not going to interfere with any military activities in the region of the South Caucasus. Second, President Serzh Sargsyan highlighted in his statement made at NATO headquarters that persons and countries voicing willingness and self-confidence over settling conflicts in the South Caucasus through arms, are just at a loss.

“The Armenian army has the victorious army model. It is an army capable of combat. An army that is well organized as an institution. And it's ready to accomplish any task given to it. The Armenian army has types of ammunition that countries ten times the size of Armenia would dream of having. The professional capacity of our officers is well known to our colleagues in the West and in the East when we engage in joint operations or drills.

Our army was born and baptized in the battlefield and the core of the Armenian officers, top officers, led by the Minister and the Army Chief of Staff, have a wealth of experience of warfare and it's a positive experience, a successful experience. With all of this our army is an army that is under democratic control, that operates transparency.

It's an army that cooperates with NATO, yes, and it's an army that cooperates with the Collective Security Treaty Organization member states, Armed Forces. Let me reiterate, it's an army that is ready to accomplish any task.

We're proud of our army. But on the other hand we dream of the day when in our region there will not be huge or oversized armies relative to the capacity of our states,” he said.

Azerbaijani got interested in (or let’s even say terrified by) the President’s remark on different types of ammunition. We will refer to the remark shortly.