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Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will arrive on a state visit to Armenia on August 19 at the invitation of Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan. Much attention to the visit and hot discussions outline that this will be a visit of unprecedented importance.

Official reports as always merely mention the visit schedule. According to the protocol, the Russian President is set to visit Tsitsernakaberd memorial complex of Armenian Genocide; an official dinner will be given on behalf of President Serzh Sargsyan. According to the official report, “Armenian and Russian Presidents will have a private talk followed by negotiations attended by delegations of the two countries. A number of agreements on development and strengthening the Armenian-Russian strategic cooperation will be signed.” The Armenian and Russian Presidents are reported to visit Gyumri to attend the solemn ceremony of opening the “Hill of Honor” memorial complex.

Outwardly, the report on Russian President’s forthcoming state visit says nothing extraordinary. While the geopolitical implications, regional processes and problems, and information leakage indicate the opposite. We will mention some of them.

It is no secret that Russian-American relations undergo “reloading” since Barack Obama took office. Conservative circles of Washington classed Obama administration’s approach as “mild” since unlike George Bush Jr. Obama seeks to come to agreement with the Kremlin over all possible issues, and if impossible, just keeps silent. By all measurements, that “reloading” also affected the South Caucasus, thus Russia advances its own interests on the background of the “passive activity” of the United States.

The second circumstance was Turkey’s long-lasting activity packed in the Caucasus Stability Pact. Thus Turkey tried to penetrate into the South Caucasus and assume an important role there. The process of Armenian-Turkish normalization became a real touchstone to test Turkey’s motives; it was revealed that Ankara’s wish to interfere in Caucasus affairs has no constructive prerequisite, it is merely a way to conceal Turkey’s imperial ambitions. It was another stimulus for Russia to specify its priorities and to undertake active steps.

Turkish activity was manifested not only by its striving to interfere in Caucasus affairs. Turkey tried to assume serious role in provision of European energy security, approximately by the following scheme: all neighboring power generating countries, from Central Asia to Persian Bay, supply raw materials to Turkey, and the latter decides the ways and tariffs for the supply to Europe. While it contradicts the interests of Russia, monopoly holder of Eastern gas pipelines as well as interests of Europe and U.S. (that is why Turkey seeks to achieve a separate agreement over Iran’s nuclear program). The mentioned case will also result in a serious counteraction to Turkey by keeping control over the South Caucasus with the help of Russia (see Russian-American “reloading”).

These and other processes made Turkey be consistent. Therefore lately Turkey constantly speaks about activization of Kars-Akhalkalak-Baku railway construction, deployment of Turkish military bases in Nakhichevan, signing an agreement on strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and Turkey, and many other issues.

The above mentioned indicates that:

1. intensive political and geopolitical processes launched in the South Caucasus,
2. regional and foreign players try to specify their own mid-term and long-term interests in the implication of these processes,
3. the players choose partners to serve their interests and create a field for mutual obligations.

The processes are underway, yet there are already the first steps: Russia declared deployment of military bases, including modern air defense systems, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia; according to an agreement with the Ukraine, Russia extended deployment of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol for another 50 years; Russia decided to update the Caspian Flotilla.

Medvedev’s visit to Armenia is expected to continue these processes; an agreement on conditions of deployment of the Russian military base in Armenia is expected to be signed, positions and resolutions over a number of economic (indeed – geostrategic) projects are set to be specified.

These projects are known to have been prioritized by the Armenian authorities long ago. We imply construction of a new nuclear power plant in Armenia, Armenia-Iran railway, oil pipeline, oil refinery.