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After June 17, 2010 St Petersburg meeting of Dmitry Medvedev of Russia, Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia and Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and after June 18 diversion attack, Azerbaijan’s President’s bellicose statements over the military settlement of NK conflict became more aggressive. Particularly, on 24 June at a meeting with Azerbaijan’s servicemen, on 7 July, meeting with “Azerbaijani community of Nagorno Karabakh,” on 13 July, meeting with members of government, Aliyev declared Azerbaijan would never accept independence of Nagorno Karabakh, and would never accept a process that would result in NK independence.
 

Aliyev said the only way to peace is pullout of Armenian troops from Nagorno Karabakh and 7 border related regions and “Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity”. He said status quo of Nagorno Karabakh could be explained only by armed balance in the region but there isn’t a similar balance and Azerbaijan deeply acknowledges that and according to Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s armed forces are the basic players of the conflict resolution. There are three basic reasons to explicate Aliyev’s bellicose statements.
 

First viewpoint: Since 1994 similar statements are made exclusively for in-house ears. The supporters of this viewpoint recollect some statements made earlier, which, in fact, do not differ from those made today, particularly, the statement made on 18 April, 2008 – Aliyev declared Azerbaijan has waited 14 years and doesn’t want to wait any longer and is ready to settle the question through military activities; another similar statement was made on 24 October, 2008. According to the experts Aliyev’s statements are closely related to some events which are expected to be held in the country:
 

a. parliamentary elections scheduled for November, 2010.
 

b. social protests within the country – in May 2010 flood destroyed 20 thousand buildings in 40 regions, about 50 thousand hectares of row lands. Azerbaijan’s government estimated $62,5m financial damage left in the aftermath of the flood. Now the flood affected live in temporary camps. Azerbaijani government declared those affected would get financial compensations but they haven’t got.
 

c. the astronomical capital of members of Ilham Aliyev’s family, purchase of great amounts of real estate by them in the country and abroad. Note that 11 year old Azerbaijani boy named Heydar Aliyev became owner of 9 detached houses in the most expensive district in Dubai totaling USD 44m (equal to 10 thousand years’ total salary of an Azerbaijani citizen receiving average wages). It caused a big scandal. The report had been issued by the Land Department of Dubai. According to the same source, Ilham Aliyev’s daughters, Leyla and Arzu also own a great amount of real estate. The real estate owned by only Aliyev’s 3 children in Dubai totals USD 75m. It is natural that such news causes protests in the country having over 800 thousand refugees living in temporary dwellings near Baku, with most of common citizens living in hard social conditions.

Thus, according to analysts, with his statements Aliyev seeks to distract society’s attention from many domestic problems.

Nevertheless, we believe that the most important factor (among domestic issues) revealing Aliyev’s statements is the parliamentary elections scheduled for November. Presently, Musavat is Azerbaijan’s leading opposition political party. The party following Pan-Turkism ideology speaks out for military resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. According to some accounts, this popular party received over 40 percent votes in the last parliamentary elections. As a result of many years’ anti-Armenian propaganda, a great deal of people in Azerbaijani society demand military resolution of NKR conflict, therefore Aliyev’s bellicose statements are made to please them and to hinder strengthening of Musavat’s positions on the threshold of the elections.

Second viewpoint which is often voiced by Russian and European analysts: they think the Nagorno Karabakh negotiations have exhausted themselves, and there is no decision to meet the demands of the conflict sides. In their opinion, Azerbaijan gets ready for large-scale operations, and Aliyev by making bellicose statements wants to prove to the international community that restoration of territorial integrity by war is his country’s right, and Azerbaijan will do it if necessary. For instance, Yevgeny Minchenko, the director of Russia’s International Political Expert Evaluation Institute believes that Azerbaijan will initiate operations “to restore its territorial integrity though it is not desirable for Russia, U.S., and EU.”
 

Some military experts believe that military balance in the region has been already violated in favor of Azerbaijan. Over the past seven years, Azerbaijan’s military expenditures have increased 13-fold. In 2010 they totaled USD 2bn 150m. This number exceeds Armenia’s State Budget for 2010. Note that according to official data, in 2010 Armenia’s military budget amounted to only USD 350m. It has been repeatedly said that especially over the past months, Azerbaijan has been sparing no effort to purchase modern military equipment for its army.
 

On the other hand, on June 8, Azerbaijani parliament adopted a military concept stipulating the main challenges Azerbaijan can face. The Nagorno Karabakh problem is considered as the primary challenge. The concept consists of 7 sections and 75 chapters. Chapter 50.3 says that military formations should be brought up to a proper level to increase strategic pressure upon the occupant, and to resolve the problem in short time and with minimum losses if it is necessary to use force. According to Head of Aliyev’s administration Faud Aleskerov, increase of military force is considered as an important factor in that context.
Nevertheless, we think resumption of operations is hardly probable at the moment. Though Azerbaijan has lately purchased a great amount of military equipment, it does not yet guarantee Azerbaijan’s momentary victory, and Russia and the West will not allow a long war since it will hinder oil and gas flows. Moreover, in the opinion of many experts, spending huge sums on Azerbaijan’s military sphere does not guarantee that country’s success. Aliyev isn’t willing, either, to resume war as his petrodollars will be endangered and unsuccessful war outcome can result in loss of his office and billions of dollars; on the other hand, he does not see a chance to escape a regular smash in war.
 

Dmitry Medvedev’s state visit to Armenia further reduced the probability of war resumption. The Armenian-Russian agreement extended for 49 years the Russian military base deployment term in Gyumri. The base will be replenished with modern military equipment and will provide Armenia’s security together with Armenian armed forces. The agreement does not stipulate that the Russian forces will interfere in the operations in case of Azerbaijan’s aggression against Artsakh, yet the document allows Armenia to concentrate its main forces in NKR, what will make Azerbaijan’s victory less probable.
 

Third viewpoint: taking advantage of the current political and economic situation, Azerbaijan seeks to make Armenia a target for foreign pressure to extort one-sided concessions from the latter. Azerbaijan works in three directions – American, Russian and European. It is said that in consideration of Azerbaijan’s role in cooperation with coalition forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, especially as a transit country for carrying troops and ammunition to Afghanistan, as an energy carrier country Azerbaijan is an important factor for Europe, U.S., and Russia. Some say that thus Azerbaijan tries to improve its positions in the Nagorno Karabakh negotiation process, especially as the above mentioned geopolitical forces are on a conflict resolution mediation mission. They give examples that now international organizations more often listen to Azerbaijan’s opinion. We can mention the resolutions of UN, Council of Europe, OSCE, Islamic Conference which are not favorable for Armenia. These resolutions are not binding, yet every year it becomes more and more difficult to present conflict’s essence to the international community and to meet fair attitude.
 

Summing up the mentioned observations we must say that all viewpoints can be among the causes of Aliyev’s bellicose statements. Nevertheless, we believe Aliyev’s statements are rather addressed to Azerbaijani public. We should prioritize the factor of the forthcoming parliamentary elections in this issue. Huge resources enter the country and are mostly concentrated in the Aliyev-backed clan; people live in bad conditions, so they protest against that unfairness, against corruption and limitations of freedom of expression. According to Freedom House report of June 30, in 2010 Azerbaijan regressed in the judicial system, in establishment of civil society and democratic institutions. It is noteworthy that head of People’s Front opposition party of Azerbaijan Ali Kerimli in his interview to The Washington Post on April 2, 2010 said that Azerbaijan is among the most corrupted countries in the world, where the leader is out of danger, with judicial, anti-corruption bodies and media supporting him.
 

Thus, Aliyev’s statements are aimed at creating an illusion of a coming war to distract Azeri society’s attention from their domestic problems, which is very important for the ruling administration on the threshold of the parliamentary elections.