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It is generally known that Azerbaijani sultan Ilham Aliyev’s bellicose statements and half steps are either intended for Azeri society or are a message for superpowers, in the recent period, especially for Russia. Foreign political scientists and experts also see that. They have repeatedly said that Aliyev’s statements are a bluff; the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict is not beneficial for Aliyev, meanwhile, war resumption is not, either, beneficial for Azerbaijan. Aliyev has guaranteed non-resumption of war to major oil companies, besides, the sultan is convinced that Azerbaijan will be completely smashed in the war. However, besides making statements Aliyev also has to take some steps. It is a different matter that all his steps have always been a failure. Yet, Aliyev doesn’t care for it. The only thing he cares for is to demonstrate that he acts, not only speaks, especially as he sends messages through his actions, for instance, to Dmitry Medvedev. Aliyev took a regular half-step on September 4. Another attempt of Azerbaijani diversion took place on September 4, at around 06.50 am, in the north-east of Karabakh-Azerbaijan contact line (2 km east of the populated area of Jraberd). Karabakh army response actions made the diversion group take to flight leaving one dead. The diversion group was killed in mine blast when taking to flight, some were injured.

Azerbaijan violates ceasefire every day, but if we follow Aliyev administration’s logic (if there is such), Azerbaijani diversion operations are not accidental. They are carried out on special days and for a special purpose. Azeris are even sure their attempts will not succeed, and the soldiers will be sacrificed merely to Aliyev’s political games. Why just this night? First, it is noteworthy that Azerbaijan officially launched the parliamentary election campaign just today.

Many experts believe the attempted night diversion is a unique start of Aliyev administration’s election campaign. We suppose the sultan tries “to kill two birds with one stone,” and the diversion was a peculiar message to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, otherwise Aliyev would have hardly taken that step the day Medvedev was in Azerbaijan.

We understand that Aliyev was nervous about the extension of deployment term of the Russian military base in Armenia as it gives security guarantees to Armenia. Moreover, in essence, Medvedev’s statements in Baku did not calm down Aliyev, on the contrary, the Russian President reiterated that Russia prioritizes resolution of the conflict through peaceful means. Especially as many experts note that Medvedev’s visit to Baku unlike his visit to Yerevan did not yield perceptible results, and it was normal, since that visit was merely aimed at retaining balance. Note that this demarche against Medvedev is peculiar to Azerbaijan.

We remember how the head of Azerbaijani sultanate returned to Baku and did not attend the International Forum this June, after the trilateral meeting of Armenian, Russian, and Azerbaijani Presidents when Armenia proved to have strong positions and solid arguments, and Aliyev got disappointed in his hopes that Medvedev is going to put pressure upon Armenia. It is noteworthy that according to official reports, Ilham Aliyev had left for Saint Petersburg first of all to attend the International Economic Forum. However, it was not the end. Just the night Aliyev came back to Baku he organized the mean diversion of Chaylu. A similar diversion was carried out on the threshold of Medvedev’s visit to Azerbaijan.

A regular one, just the day of Russian President’s visit. It is an expressive fact, and in all probability, soon the Russian authorities will draw proper conclusions.