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 In the Caspian city of Astrakhan Russian President Dmitry Medvedev took the initiative to invite his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts to a tripartite meeting.

The Presidents had a similar format meeting in Saint Petersburg on June 17. Then, Dmitry Medvedev suggested certain recommendations to Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev. The presidents agreed upon the recommendations during the meeting, but soon after the meeting Aliyev left Saint Petersburg, though he seemed to have plans to attend Petersburg economic forum.

Even more, on June 18 Azerbaijani diversion group violated the ceasefire regime and invaded the line of contact, which left casualties from the both sides. Generally, the clashes after every negotiating meeting seem to have become traditional and a signal which demonstrates the approach of the sides after the meetings. To conclude, Aliyev used another “tool” to demonstrate his discontent from the St. Petersburg meeting.

Now the events develop in the opposite order. On the eve of Astrakhan meeting, Azerbaijani sniper shooters killed a soldier of Artsakh. It’s surely targets the abortion of Astrakhan meeting’s aftermath.

What was discussed in Saint Petersburg and what is going to be discussed in Astrakhan? Being unable to persist the negotiations, Aliyev tries to escape the agreements.

To find the accurate answer we should look through the negotiating phases. The process is divided into two effort group – the first one targets the settlement of the conflict and the second one focuses the management of the conflict; to keep the ceasefire regime.

Anyway it’s impossible to implement the maximum plan of conflict settlement within mid-terms. The reasons are well known. Hence, the mediators focus the implementation of the plan minimum. “Mindorff declaration”, intensified monitoring in the line of contact are to target the implementation of this project. But both, the mediators and the sides acknowledge that those tools can’t solve any problem. More effective mechanisms are needed.

The sides have been recommended by both the mediators and UN Secretary General to cease the snipers from the first line, but Azerbaijan’s President declared he’s not going to cooperate over this recommendation.
Today, the sides were supposed to be recommended to avoid any attempt towards the escalation of the conflict, But in vain. Azerbaijani authorities reject that effort before the meeting.

Previsions may be made but we should wait for the meeting results. It’s very important to see if the co-chairs will assess anyhow these events.