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 The year started without any stormy political events. Compared with post-holiday moods of previous January, 2011 seems boring, slow and dull. It’s worth reminding that one year ago events were indescribable in foreign and in-house fronts.

Domestic affairs surely focused special elections in 10th polling station of Center Administration. Nikol Pashinyan’s participation to those elections made ANC become active, they made January to be stormy and go up and down. Now, it’s a little bit difficult to separate an event for the first month of the new year. Even more, the political horizon is so calm and quiet (if, of course, the authorities don’t make any serious staff changes).

The events in the foreign front were tougher. The Constitutional Court of Armenia was discussing the fate for the Armenian-Turkish making the fact (or the process) being much spoken about.

Those flows, having connection with the normalization of Armenian-Turkish ties and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, were more comprehensive by the unprecedented diplomatic active processes in the region. In these days Turkish PM Erdogan was paying visit to Moscow, Russian FM Lavrov was in Yerevan. The diplomats were concentrated on trilateral meeting that Sochi should have hosted. Though having no tiny wish to exaggerate facts, January of 2011 has no chances to be compared with the previous year.

For these days, the only thing that has any connection with Armenia’s politics is referendum of Sudan. That referendum may be more deeply touched upon only soon after the results are declared, which is scheduled for February. But a vital remark can be made – the possibilities of people’s right for self determination are becoming more extended in the modern world, which will but delight nations and peoples suffering under others’ power; world’s political map borders are continuingly changing, making territorial integrity fragile against people’s rights and demands; new mechanism is applied for the conflicts’ settlements – delayed referendum. But still those things can be thoroughly discussed only after the referendum official results are released.

Shall we conclude that such a dull start (we mean political start) threatens the year? We guess, no. We think, the year is going to be hot for Armenia, leaving the burdens on domestic life.

The reasons are several. Breakthrough in the foreign front is excluded. Armenian-Turkish relations at least until Turkish parliamentary elections (which are scheduled in summer) will remain motionless. Some deconstructive mood focusing domestic audience is possible. In this respect, the first swallows aren’t late – Erdogan called Statue of Peace dedicated to Armenian-Turkish relations “evil”. It’s not clear, what is evil for Erdogan – Armenian-Turkish relations or the statue. Referring to the second part of the year, we would say much depends on Turkish political life and Turkish elite. Anyway, it’s difficult to believe that in 2011 Armenian-Turkish affairs will be targeted by Turkish domestic agenda.

Making our remarks for Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution, we would say that the process seemed not hurrying yet in previous year. That kind of regress will surely be continued. The factors which influenced resolution of NK conflict, simply don’t exist in 2011. Kazakhstan is no longer OSCE president country, the international community will be busy with more urgent issues (US is approaching president elections, conflicts of Afghanistan and Iraq are unsettled, Europe needs to meet new challenges and find resources, Russia goes deep with its social-economic problems), Armenian-Turkish process is no longer a factor, and the sides don’t seem to appear with new initiatives, since in-house and social-economic affairs are also urgent in Caucasus states.

What should we expect from 2011 for our in-house life? Previsions are hard to be made. Anyway the new developments will be made in 2012 focusing parliamentary elections. So conditionally this is a pre-electoral year- political classifications, alliances, negotiations, discussions, political initiatives, etc.

The other element making the domestic life hot is the initiatives which will be implemented by the ruling authorities. Concluding the year, President in fact released a speech of new plans. That was a speech which supposed meeting the challenges from this year.
To conclude, this is peace and tranquil before storm. We’re going to have a hot year.