Comments 18:01 17/05/2012

5 factors making Israel to halt military operations against Iran

Author Armen Israyelyan

Parallel to challenging nuclear issue between Iran and the world powers, Israel voices rhetoric to settle the Iranian issue through military operations.

On April 14 when Iran and “5+1 group” (UN SC 5 permanent members and Germany) meeting sides met in Istanbul and hailed the first outcomes of the negotiations, Israel became alarmed. Israel is allegedly determined to impose pressure on the international community on the threshold of Baghdad meeting, where the second round talks between Iran and 5+1 group will launch on May 23. Soon after the Istanbul meeting Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak stated Iran would produce atomic weapon in 60 days.

Although, Israel is making rhetoric statements for years, the ongoing processes are evidence that the countries are holding mainly information war.

Iranian analyst Ali Gaderi mentions several factors that will make Israel to halt its military operations against Iran.

1. Israel lacks comprehensive information, what consequences the military operation will leave and what counter-attack will follow from Iran,

2. Israel’s domestic preparedness will fail if Iran undertakes rapid counter-attacks,

3. Israel’s military-political elite is not united in launching military operations against Iran (Israel’s army chief of staff, heads of foreign intelligence (Mossad) and interior security departments did not approve Israeli PM’s and Defense Minister’s military initiatives against Iran).

4. Israel’s economy cannot overcome destructive consequences of war

5. The United States of America does not support either Israel’s military initiatives against Iran.

A couple of days ago U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta focused on a potential military operation against Iran.
“I would like to hope... that the leadership of Israel has not made a decision to launch military operations against Iran’s nuclear objects.”

Minister of Foreign Affairs of Great Britain William Hague described Israel’s potential military attack against Iran as a foolish step.

The Los Angeles Times daily noted in a story recently that Washington understands its tough policy against Iran is not efficient and if USA and allies continue pressure, the process will reach a dead end.

Besides, Barack Obama declared during his election campaign that he would not approve any war thoughts encouraging improvement of country’s domestic life.

Washington sent a message to Israel that USA is not intended to join Israel’s defensive operations urging the country to defend its national interests.

To conclude, Iran and 5+1 group’s efficient meeting in Istanbul, recorded advancement between Iran and IAEA in Vienna and some positive messages from the U.S. addressed to Iran (US State Department congratulated Iranian wrestlers for their victory in world championship) are lights to hope that negotiations over Iranian nuclear issue will continue and that war will not threaten the region in the near future.



Source Panorama.am
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