Guluzade: Putin’s position will be pro-Armenian
Some analysts believe the recent sharp escalation of violence along the Nagorno-Karabakh contact line was specifically intended to get international mediators’ attention, “Eurasianet” report said.
“The two countries signed a ceasefire in 1994, ending six years of conflict over the Karabakh enclave. The two armies have continued to snipe at each other for the past two decades, as negotiations on a lasting political settlement remain stalemated.
The escalation turned the 24-year Karabakh conflict into the main topic of public interest during the US secretary of state’s visits to Yerevan and Baku, with residents on both sides at times swept up by rumors about an impending resumption of all-out warfare.
Analysts in Baku maintain that the flare-up in fighting during Clinton’s tour was not a mere coincidence, but a "message" to Washington that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not frozen and that greater American attention to the problem is needed,” the story said.
“There are reasons to believe that Putin’s position will be pro-Armenian. Therefore, Baku needs more US involvement in the process,” Vafa Guluzade, a former senior foreign policy aide to the late Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev said.
“Sumarinli believes that the flights indicate that Russia is trying to show Azerbaijan that Armenia will not be alone if war in Karabakh resumes. “It puts Baku into a difficult situation,” he said.
Baku political analyst Elhan Shahinoglu is doubtful that the recent ceasefire violations will lead to bolder US involvement in the peace process. "Obama's administration has never paid much attention to the Karabakh problem,” said Shahinoglu, who heads Baku’s Atlas Research Center. “I do not think it will change if Obama is re-elected this year.”