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I do not think that the chances of Armenian National Congress (ANC) increased. Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) is a multi-layer organization. This party’s electorate is not completely opposition. It would be a different thing if this party had made some decision. In this case, it would have mobilized its electorate, political scientist Suren Surenyants told Panorama.am when asked to comment on whether the ANC’s chances of victory increased following PAP’s decision not to nominate its candidate. 

“Some of PAP members are pro-governmental, there are such people who support the opposition, there are also such members who have declared themselves ‘alternative figures,’ who criticize the government and at the same time refrain from criticism of President. It means that the behavior of this electorate is unpredictable,” said he.

According to Surenyants, depending on the fact what policy will be adopted by ANC, its chances of victory will either increase or decrease due to the absence of PAP.

“Another thing is also important: the establishment of closer ties between ANC and PAP, which we saw in 2012, was inefficient and it is not yet clear if ANC will be able to regain its face, its visiting card and become convincing to society,” the expert added.

According to Surenyants, ANC now has less possibilities of manoeuvre, because in the case of PAP’s participation in the elections, there could be different formats: a consensus candidate from ANC, a consensus candidate from PAP or unification around a third candidate. But now ANC’s possibilities are too limited, with only three ways remaining:

“The first way is that Levon Ter-Petrosyan is a candidate for president with uncertain prospect of victory. In this case, ANC will perhaps maintain unity but the first president’s results will be more modest than in 2008. The second way is that ANC does not participate in the elections. The third way is that ANC nominates another candidate, but he will not have the consolidating resource which Levon Ter-Petrosyan had, and this could lead to another split in ANC.”

“ANC has lost too much time. In 2012, ANC was not an independent political factor, but rather acted as “PAP’s lawyer,” the expert stressed.

“So, I find it difficult to give an exact answer as to whether or not this political force is able to adapt to a new reality,” Surenyants concluded.