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The government of Azerbaijan has been on the offensive in recent weeks, the Radio Liberty says and reminds about the harsh suppression of opposition protests, a crackdown on foreign-funded NGOs, and a formal request to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to downgrade its Baku office.

“It is an effort that activists say is intended to seize control of the political landscape ahead of the October presidential election,” the article says.

Vafa Guluzadeh, a former government adviser, sees the move as an effort to cut off anticipated OSCE criticism of the upcoming election. In the past, the OSCE has consistently rated Azerbaijan’s elections as not free and unfair. “This is not about current relations. It is about future elections. It is difficult to predict whether the OSCE will recognize the election or not. There may be concern about this, and so they want to transform the OSCE into an obedient structure,” Guluzadeh said.

Hafiz Hasanov, head of the Baku NGO Law and Development Social Union, agrees, saying he thinks the election-monitoring arm of the OSCE will not be invited to assess the October poll. The Radio Station notes that Aliyev, is widely expected to be awarded a third term in October.

The move to downgrade the OSCE office comes in the wake of the March 14 arrests of three activists, including a program officer of the U.S.-funded National Democratic Institute’s (NDI) Baku office. Azerbaijani state press had earlier reported that the NDI was financing a “Facebook revolution,” a charge that the U.S. Embassy in Baku has staunchly denied. During a recent tour of the United Statesruling party lawmaker Samad Seyidov, who heads Azerbaijan’s delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, said the new restrictions on NGOs are intended to counter threats to stability.

Presidential chief of staff of Azerbaijan Ramiz Mehdiyev gave a blistering interview to state media on March 15 in which he predicted that Aliyev will win the October electionand said numerous “fake NGOs” were interfering in Azerbaijan’s internal affairs. He called them “threats to national security" and said the authorities should investigate and shut them down.

Radio Liberty notes that Mehdiyev, 74, is at the heart of an ongoing scandal involving leaked videos that show an official of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party purportedly selling seats in the legislature and saying she will pass the money on to “master Ramiz.” “Mehdiyev -- reportedly the country’s powerful gray cardinal -- may be feeling pressure to assure Aliyev the domestic political situation is under control following an unusual wave of protests since the beginning of the year,” the Radio Station says and adds that this week unrest spread into the oil sector, with up to 2,000 oil workers protesting against low wages and poor working conditions.

On March 9, Azerbaijani police raided an OSCE training seminar in Baku. Baku could also be signaling its frustration with the OSCE-led negotiation process to resolve the dispute with neighboring Armenia over the Azerbaijani region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

In February 2013 Azerbaijani parliament adopted amendments to tighten control over the use of grants and donations from NGOs, religious and other structures. According to the amendments penalties for non-registration of contracts are seriously increased, benefits from foreign NGOs without the grant agreement, etc. As Turan noted, in reality it means a further tightening of many human rights and democratic NGOs in Azerbaijan. Many of these NGOs do not have state registration because of the refusal of the authorities. However, they receive grants from foreign donors. Now, the state bodies of Azerbaijan will refuse registration of grant agreements, referring to the fact that NGOs do not have state registration.