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Armenak Tokmajian for The Armenian Weekly 

After winning the battle of Al-Qusayr, a small town near the Syrian-Lebanese border, various news agencies began writing about a shift in the military balance—one in favor of the Syrian Regular Army. Both the military and political wings of the Syrian opposition underlined the urgent need to rescue the town from falling; in other words, admitted a possible defeat. On the other hand, the pro-governmental sources broadcast news of Syrian Army’s advance in the town and its adjacent territories, insisting on the importance of this battle. Prior to the large-scale military operation in Al-Qusayr, the military advanced in the surrounding areas of the Damascus International Airport, which was often targeted by the militant opposition. Currently, according to the Al-Mayadeen news agency, which maintains reporters on the ground, the successful battles of the Syrian Army in the north of Aleppo province has paved the way for a larger operation to break the siege in Aleppo.

If the Syrian Army manages to break the siege, the achievement would not merely be a strategic advance from a military point of view, but would also decrease the suffering of the city’s inhabitants. It would also positively influence the Armenian community in Aleppo, which has been in a vulnerable situation for more than a year. Since May 2012, and the “Battle of Aleppo,” the economic and security situation of the city has radically deteriorated. After months of clashes between the regular forces and the opposition, the city came under a tight siege imposed mainly by the jihadist organization of Jabhet Al-Nussra. With the blockade, local Armenians began to face ever-increasing difficulties in accessing their basic needs: bread, heating material, electricity, and water. Armenians in the central parts of the city encountered better conditions, relatively speaking, until the circle of the siege tightened to include the largely Armenian-populated area of Al-Midan (Nor Kyug). Moreover, when the Syrian Free Army occupied the Al-Sheikh Maksud neighborhood, in late March 2013, Armenian-populated areas such as Al-Suleymanieh, Al-Villat, and Al-Azizieh were subjected to an unprecedented bombing campaign. Armenians who had the ability to leave the country did not hesitate to join others who had already left. Thus, many Syrian Armenians now reside outside of Syria, mainly in Armenia and Lebanon. The situation, however, changed over the last weeks, both on the political and military level.

Should Armenians return to their homes and re-acquire their jobs after the recent military victories of the Regular Army, on the one hand, and the political attempts to resolve the conflict (Geneva 2) on the other? Rev. Haroutyun Selimyan, the head of the Armenian Evangelical community in Aleppo, in an interview to “First Armenian News and Analysis” on May 26 encouraged the Syrian Armenians who had found shelter in Armenia to return to Syria. He concluded the interview claiming that although Armenia is the motherland of all Armenians, Syrian Armenians should not leave Syria. Indeed, Armenians generally enjoyed good economic conditions in the country before the uprising, whereas today many Syrian Armenians are facing serious challenges outside of Syria. For instance, those found refuge in Armenia face obstacles daily: Life there is relatively expensive; the youth are finding it hard to cope to the Armenia way of life; and the schools and universities have different rules and principles. Despite all of these facts, however, Armenians should not be encouraged to return to Syria, either now or in the foreseeable future, for many reasons; I will name a few.

The pathway to Geneva 2 is very arduous. We can approach this issue from at least two analytical angels: First, whether or not this conference will be held is uncertain, as many of the participants have preconditions. But Russia, as a central actor in the Syrian conflict, is putting major pressure on the stakeholders to hold the negotiations. There is still the possibility, then, that the conference will be held. Second, even if the conference were to take place, it is necessary to understand that it will not be for Syria; in other words, only a few actors are actually interested in ending the conflict. Even Russia, which does not spare any effort in bringing the conflicting parties together, is not interested in ending the conflict; rather, it aims to start a long political process. Dr. Marek Menkiszak, a prominent expert in Russian foreign policy, argues that “… the Russian policy concerning Syria is not about Syria, it is about Russia” (FIIA Seminar, Helsinki 2013). In short, expecting significant changes after Geneva 2 will be unrealistic.

Another important reason Armenians should stay away from Syria, at least for the time being, is the nature of the ongoing war. Most Syrian Armenians, unofficially, support or “like” the Syrian president and prefer the continuation of the current regime. However, this war is not merely about the regime; rather, I would argue that this war is a deep-rooted, modern civil war with distinctive dynamics. Many regional and international actors—that are not willing to end the bloodshed—are involved. This civil war will not end overnight. And even when the actual fighting ends, the struggle will continue for decades. There are many examples of this—DRC, Angola, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Iraq, and Afghanistan—where different parties at different stages of the conflict have a military or political advantage, but the war continues for years. Therefore, the current military advance is crucial but never sufficient to conclude the war. As Stanford Professor Ann Hironaka argues, such conflicts in the 21st century have become “never ending wars.”

What are the perspectives of the Armenians in Syria? At this stage of the conflict, it is very difficult to draw conclusions. However, encouraging Armenians to return to Aleppo is not a wise strategy. Life in Syria and, particularly, in Aleppo is becoming increasingly expensive, with a lack of basic necessities, the economic deterioration, and the decrease in job opportunities; in addition, there is a major security threat to regular citizens in Aleppo. The old life that Armenians enjoyed in Syria will not be re-established any time soon. Therefore, there should be alternatives to Syria. The Syrian Armenians’ situation in Armenia is becoming relatively better. Some “success stories” are appearing in the news especially, among the youth. Hovsep Balmanoukian, 24, who has a bachelor’s in international relations, described in an interview with “Armenians Today Project” how he made it into the Armenian job market and how he plans to study at the American University of Armenia (AUA). He argues that although life is difficult, succeeding in Armenia is possible.

Armenak Tokmajyan is pursuing a master’s degree in peace, mediation and conflict research at Tampere University in Finland, while working as a research assistant at the Crisis Management Centre in Finland. He previously studied at the University of Van in Amsterdam, at Sciences-Po in Paris, and at the University of Kalamoon in Syria. Before enrolling at Tampere, Tokmajyan worked at the UNHCR Aleppo Field Office in the Protection Unit. He is the author of various research articles.