Your trusted source

Panorama has interviewed Thomas De Waal, expert on the South Caucasus at Carnegie Endowment and Dennis Sammut, Director of the British LINKS NGO, on the current stage of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.  

We consulted the experts on whether the appointment of the new American co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group James Warlick could be interpreted as a revival of Madrid Principles and whether any new policies could be expected towards the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution.

According to Thomas de Waal, by the nomination of a new full-time mediator Jim Warlick the United States has signaled that it wants to put new energy into the negotiations.

“The first issue on the agenda for the Minsk Group co-chairs is to get a direct bilateral meeting between Presidents Aliev and Sargsyan. Given the firm control each leader has over decision-making processes, nothing can start without that. But there is a big deficit of trust between the two men and each side has also signaled that it does not want to make any significant new concessions on the Basic Principles document. I think Warlick’s trip is the first important test as to whether the parties will be receptive to any new ideas,” De Waal noted.

Dennis Sammut said that the Madrid Principles still remain the basis for negotiations and added, - “In truth the problem is not the principles but how to go about realizing them. Here I think there is scope for new ideas and new initiatives. I believe the co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Process need to be bolder in their approach.”

The experts do not foresee any major changes in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution process before the end of this year. De Waal thinks that the completion of the election in Azerbaijan should theoretically be the stimulus for new efforts in the Nagorno Karabakh peace process; however he assesses the underlying dynamics of the process as rather negative.

“Even though the “Madrid Principles” have been discussed for more than five years, the positions of the two parties on the central issue – the final status of Karabakh itself – remain almost irreconcilable. This leaves us with the continuing reality that the conflict over Karabakh will be “managed” but is unlikely to be resolved,” said De Waal.

Mr. Sammut said that even though another meeting between Foreign Ministers may take place before the end of the year, these meetings are not enough; he likewise stressed the importance of a new meeting between the two Presidents. “It is unlikely that such meeting can take place before the end of the year, but preparations for it should start immediately after the presidential elections in Azerbaijan next month,” Sammut said.

Asked whether he thinks the concerns of the Karabakh Armenians are taken into account in the current negotiation process, Sammut said that Karabakh should not become some abstract conversation on constitutional or legal issues but the discussion should focus on the people involved.

“It is first and foremost about the people who have suffered because of the conflict. I do not believe in boycotts and blockades, since these instruments tend to lead to further entrenchment of hard-line positions. What we need is more compromise, more flexibility and more creative thinking so that the current impasse can be broken. That is why I support people-to-people contacts,” said the director of LINKS.

He also stressed the role of the international community in facilitating this process.

“The international community needs to find a way in which it can interact with the people of Nagorno-Karabakh without in any way pre-empting the negotiations... A framework to enable humanitarian assistance to reach whoever needs it has to be agreed. I think this issue should be brought up higher on the agenda in discussions and negotiations. There needs to be a neutral way in which people can visit Nagorno-Karabakh and see things for themselves. I do not believe that isolating people helps solve the problem,” Dennis Sammut concluded.