Iran, West N-talks high-stakes chess match: Patrick Basham
Press TV has conducted an interview with Patrick Basham, founding director of the Democracy Institute, about the issue of Iran’s nuclear energy program.
- Mr. Basham in Washington, Mr. Marandi [the other guest of the program] here in Tehran is telling us that this problem has been intentionally manufactured by the other side and we know now at this stage the Iran’s deputy foreign minister has said both sides have put forth a common objective and that is settling the dispute.
Do you think that those who say the issue could have been dealt with a long time ago are right and that what’s needed here is the political will for this issue to be resolved?
- Well I think those who say the issue could have been dealt with a long time ago are right in the sense that we would all, I think on both sides, on all sides, have preferred that to be the case but it is not necessarily the case that it was possible to do so.
I think that, although certainly I appreciate the argument that the Western powers concern is manufactured, I do think that the available evidence suggest that Western leaders genuinely believe, rightly or wrongly, correctly or incorrectly, that Iran’s intentions are not what the Iranian government says they are - peaceful versus military.
That does not mean that the Western leaders are correct but it is important to stress that that is what they believe to be the situation because that pre-determines their actions because what we are really talking about here is a very complicated high-stakes chess match. But it is a chess match that is made even more complicated by the fact that there is almost total distrust between the two sides.
- Well Mr. Basham, are you saying then, are you suggesting then that the concerns that you are talking about are real concerns or are they manufactured concerns then, because it is of course the basis for all the dispute in the first place?
- I think that, it is to my knowledge all of those individuals and governments who are party to the sanctions on Iran and to staying tough on Iran on the nuclear question are genuine in their conviction and their belief that Iran is pursuing a military end to its nuclear program.
That is what they believe to be the case, whether history will end up telling us that was the case or not, that is what they believe and therefore their actions can be seen as predictable based on that fundamental assumption.
It is just, it is analogous to the fact that the Iranian government is distrustful of the Americans motives especially in relation, in regard to Israel’s role in ensuring that America maintains its opposition to Iran’s nuclear program. Both sides are assuming the worst and the least of the other and as a consequence we are ten years later still negotiating on the edges of this problem rather than towards the center where actually a solution may be found.
- Iran has been taking confidence building measures, that is what our guest there in Tehran is saying. We know for instance the additional protocol, the further inspections by the IAEA, the fuel-cycle issue, etc.
The thing is why does the West insist that Iran should be more transparent, should be building more confidence? I mean what does the West expect from Iran in order for these sanctions to be lifted?
- It is a great question, I do not know if there is a great answer. The problem really comes again, it comes down to distrust and it comes down to the assumptions on the Western side.
As my fellow guest has pointed out in a very calm and rational way, those assumptions may not necessarily all be correct. But we have to face the political reality that those are the basic assumptions that the Western world is working from.
Therefore rightly or wrongly, the bar, the trust level where that bar is set vis-à-vis Iran from the Western perspective is very, very high. Now your guest in Tehran would say well it is ridiculously high and I appreciate to understand why he is saying that, but the reality is it is very high.
This has also made it that much more difficult by the fact that the two most obvious choices for Western policymakers particularly America are either to militarily intervene and prevent Iran’s nuclear program from continuing and end the argument or to simply leave well alone and let Iran do whatever Iran wants to do. Neither one is politically sellable here in America. Therefore we continue to argue about sanctions and whether they should be more or less, etc., etc.
So it is partly a discussion with Iran but as importantly it is a discussion here in America, in other Western nations internally about what on earth we should or should not do because the truth is we do not know what to do about Iran.
- Mr. Basham, one issue that was mentioned also in the comments that we saw is how fair or balanced the situation between Iran and the P5+1 right now is.
I mean a lot of people are saying, asking Iran to stop 20 percent enrichment, asking Iran to close the heavy water facility in Arak, or to send its enriched uranium out of the country, are not legally binding request because Iran is a member of the NPT and at the same time using sanctions and threats as a form of pressure. So do you that think this is just too much pressure on Tehran and the situation is not at all fair and balanced?
- Well it is too much pressure if you look at it from arguably a moral or economic perspective, humanitarian perspective. The reason I generally oppose sanctions where they are applied in the world is because they hurt the people you are trying to help and arguably we do not have the right to that and others do not have the right to do it to us.
But in reality Iran is in no small part attempting as your guest in Tehran has indicated to do the things that the West is requesting because these sanctions which have become more and more onerous are truly biting in Iran.
They are hurting people, the economy is in poor shape and so I think the Iranian government even though it believes that it is not morally required to go the extra mile, is now willing perhaps to go that extra mile because they need some of these economic pressures to be lessened. It is just simply the reality of trying to protect the Iranian people.
Western powers know that those sanctions are biting. It appears to be the only card that they hold, that they can play short of military intervention, so they are going to continue to keep their foot down on that gas pedal because it appears to be the only instrument that may work for them.