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Ilham Aliyev has won reelection as president of Azerbaijan for a third term. The result was never in doubt. Nor was the fact that election observers would criticize the conduct of the poll—the OSCE monitoring team promptly released a statement describing a number of serious defects, writes British journalist Thomas de Waal in an article published at Carnegie Endowment site.

“Now it gets more interesting. As Aliyev begins his eleventh year as president of Azerbaijan, the huge shadow of his father and predecessor inevitably begins to recede and this is the moment for him to set a new political agenda for the country—if he wants too.
As I have argued recently, a changing geopolitical environment means that he needs to do so or risk facing a whole new set of problems,” the article says.

According to de Waal, reading the runes in post-election Baku, there is already one important piece of news to ponder. This is that under a presidential pardon former Economic Development Minister Farhad Aliyev has been released from jail, along with his brother Rafik. He notes that Farhad Aliyev was jailed in 2005. Formally the charge was corruption but his imprisonment was obviously the result of a political falling out, the expert writes. “Aliyev (Farhad – Ed.) had picked the wrong side in an internal power struggle and got punished for it,” the author writes.

“Farhad Aliyev had the reputation of being a modernizer, in favor of reforming the economy. Significantly, his only statement on being granted his freedom was to declare loyalty to the president,” de Waal notes.

It may be that the release of the former minister is the beginning of a thaw. If that is the case, other actions must follow, including the release of other jailed political figures, such as Ilgar Mammadov.

De Waal touched upon the harsh reaction of Baku and its government pushing back hard against the U.S. government’s sharp statement on the election. Presidential Chief of Staff Ramiz Mekhtiev claimed that the Americans had “advised” them to give the opposition 25 percent of the vote in the poll.

Both these are episodes without a trend. It will take a few weeks before a clearer narrative emerges from Baku.

Azerbaijan held presidential elections on October 9, where Ilham ALiyev took a victory with 84,58% votes. According to the preliminary data, Jamil Hasanli a single candidate from the oppositionist National Council of Democratic Forces is on the second place. He scored 5,54% of votes. The leaders of the "Musavat" party Isa Gambar, the head of the Popular Front Party Ali Kerimli, the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan Sardar Jalaloglu and leader of the movement “EL” Eldar Namazov have declared about "total violations" and frauds during the presidential elections. The candidate of the National Council Jamil Hasanli has also noted the mass election frauds and announced incumbent President Ilham Aliyev responsible that. Jamil Hasanli’s headquarter has regularly issued releases describing election violations in details - ballot stuffing, "carousels", pressure on observes, etc.