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A number of serious challenges are waiting for Ilham Aliyev during the third term as president: the decline of oil production, the low index of human rights defense and the threat of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resumption. This is stated in the article, of the director of European programs of the International Crisis Group, ICG, published on the website of Swiss information-analytical center ISN.

According to Fraser, oil production in Azerbaijan has started to decline. This reduction will accelerate after 2015. The new gas fields will hardly recoup the loss of oil revenues. Another problem she believes is the non-diversified economy: 92% of exports of oil and oil products were accounted in 2012.

"Besides that, in 2012 and 2013, we have witnessed public protests that are indicators of dissatisfaction with the inhabitants of the country inequality, corruption, lack of capacity in the regions and hazing in the army. Despite the fact that these demonstrations had run out with mass arrests, they were shocking for both officials and the public," Sabrina Frazer said.

The article reads that one more - less pronounced, but a serious threat for Azerbaijan is the rise of Islamic conservatism. In secular Azerbaijan a new generation of active believers is growing up, Fraser writes, recalling the protests against the unofficial ban on the wearing of hijab.

It is also noted that the human rights activists and international organizations such as the Human Rights Watch and the Amnesty International, have repeatedly spoken about the lack of progress on human rights and democracy.

"The recently held presidential elections were criticized more harshly than the previous ones," Fraser noted. According to her, before this the human rights problems did not affect the relations between Baku and the Western countries. However, Azerbaijan's relations with Western partners are now on more shaky grounds than they used to be before. Azerbaijan is not going to sign a trade agreement with Brussels in Vilnius, since it is not a WTO member, and has no plans to move forward in the process of association with the EU. Taking into consideration the fact that Azerbaijan is less used as a corridor for the supply or withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, Washington's interest in the region is also weakening.

The author also drew attention to the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, stressing that the war would be a disaster for the countries involved and for the region as a whole. "Now that Armenia has agreed to join the Customs Union, Russia is unlikely to allow its ally to be attacked by Azerbaijan," she writes.