Your trusted source

When the oil runs out in Azerbaijan, Baku will try to provoke a war with both Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, but the Armenians should be farsighted and prevent the outbreak of war a decade before the enemy wants to start it, reads the article written by Garen Yegparian published in "Asbarez".

“By all accounts, Azerbaijan’s oil will run out, practically speaking, in a little more than a decade. This doesn’t mean there won’t be any oil left underground. It means that given how much oil remains, where it is. Newer, better technology might come on line. The price of oil could go up making it economical to invest more and go for hard to reach deposits. Regardless, the end of Azerbaijani oil is near. And the decline in production has begun,” the author writes.

It is noted that Azerbaijan also has natural gas reserves. Baku is now negotiating with the big, international, companies to determine which one(s) will get the contracts. As part of these upcoming deals, the Azeris will also try to wangle improvements to the oil infrastructure they now have in place so more of the remaining oil can be extracted. According to the author this will buy the thieving leaders of the country a few more years.

“Eventually, the fossil fuels will run out. The billions of dollars pouring into the country will stop. Along with that, so will the crooked leadership’s ability to pacify the populace through money. Then what will they do? Of course, like all petty tyrants, forceful repression will ensue. Riots, beatings, civilian deaths will ratchet up the tension. What do leaders anywhere do in such cases? They will find or create a distraction. War with an external enemy tends to mute internal dissent,” the author writes.

According to the author Azerbaijan will attack Armenian positions, or try to provoke an Armenian assault so he has an excuse to “retaliate” and start the war he desperately needs.

Yegparian believes that there’s also another reason that Azerbaijan would start a war at such a point in its oil/gas history. With the flood of money drying up, its ability to continue its weaponry-purchasing binge will end. Arms and munitions get old, replaced by better technology. So, Azerbaijan would have an incentive to use what it already has before obsolescence takes its toll.

“The trick for Armenians will be to prevent that war from starting for a decade beyond when Aliyev would want to start it,” the author added.