Baku experts summed up 2013 in Azerbaijan: rigged elections, revolt in Ismaili, reduction of revenues
According to Azerbaijani politicians, political scientists and public figures the most important events in socio-political life of Azerbaijan in 2013 were rigged presidential elections, popular revolt in Ismaili, protests of nonpolitical youth, rising gasoline prices, predictions of the reduction of Azerbaijani oil and gas revenues and the deaths of soldiers. They told about this to the Azerbaijani news portal “Minval.az”.
Political scientist Arastun Orujlu said that socio-political life of Azerbaijan in 2013 appeared to be sluggish. “However, at the beginning of the year some important events took place in the country. The Azerbaijani youth in January and March filled the streets with protests. It’s really significant as the protests organized by nonpolitical youth became a new phenomenon in the history of Azerbaijan. These protests illustrated that we have new socio-political situation in the country. Besides, the events of Ismaili were also momentous. And in the third place I would put the presidential elections held in October,” he said.
Political analyst Leila Alieva mentioned presidential elections, the events of Ismaili as well as the arrests of Ilgar Mammadov, Tofiq Yagublu and many other worthy people as important events. “In the world prominent phenomena were the Ukrainian events and the evaluation of Azerbaijani presidential elections by ODIHR,” she said.
Political scientist Ilgar Velizade considered 2013 presidential elections of Azerbaijan, which determined the fate of the country for the next 5 years, as the most important event. “Increasing prices of gasoline became the most debatable topic in the country as it potentially touched the main sectors of Azerbaijani society. And finally the definition of the main supply route of Azerbaijani gas from “Shah Deniz” to the markets of European Union was also an event of great significance (TAP),” he said.
Another political scientist Zafar Guliyev considered the creation of National Council of Democratic forces to be the most significant event of the year as it was the most successful format of opposition reunification. According to him it attracted not only the attention of Azerbaijan but also the international community.
“Mass unrest in Ismaili showed the citizens’ dissatisfaction of being deprived of their rights and the extent of bureaucratic and police abuses in the country. The presidential elections triggered scandalous resonance far beyond the country as it was the third term of the incumbent and the elections were falsified. First time Azerbaijani authorities encountered the problem of legitimacy,” Zafar Guliyev said.
Theologian Ilgar Ibrahimoglu as well thinks that revolt in Ismaili was a major event in Azerbaijan. “It was significant as people were protesting against the humiliation of their dignity. After the events of Guba this can be considered a trend. Moreover, for the first time in 20 years the opposition parties managed to come together in a common format and create National Council. Increasing prices of fuel destroyed the myth that development is possible without taxes. Unfortunately the choice was made in favor of natural monopolies, rather than improvement of sector management,” he said.
Human Rights defender Matanat Azizova believes that January 12, 2013 protests against the death of the soldiers in non-combat conditions showed the power of Azerbaijani youth. She also considered the Strasser list of Azerbaijani political prisoners as an important phenomenon. “Besides, the opposition parties managed to unite and go to the elections with a single candidate, Jamil Hasanli,” said Azizova.
Political scientist Elhan Sahinoglu thinks that the key event in Azerbaijna in 2013 was the forecasts about the reductions of oil and gas revenues.
An economist Qubat Ibadoglu believes that the creation of National Council of Democratic Forces was the most significant event in Azerbaijan. “The presidential elections, discussions about the falsification of its results were also important. Finally, the simplification of visa regime between Azerbaijan and EU had a great value,” he said.
Political analyst Zardusht Alizadeh stated that nothing of significant importance took place in Azerbaijan in 2013. “The fraud of elections was expected. The opposition had a ridiculous position. The indifference of the people was also expected. However, finally certain facts about the corrupt behavior of ruling elite came into surface. For example, the corruption scandal around SOCAR,” he noted.
The head of Musavat Party Isa Gambar also considered the presidential elections of Azerbaijan as the most prominent event of the year. “The oppositional democratic forces won the elections, however the authorities falsified the results”.
Co-founder of REAL movement Erkin Gadirli said that, if speaking about the internal processes from political standpoint, 2013 proved to be a boring year in Azerbaijan. “It seemed that all the processes in the country died such as media, market, parties, academic environment and PR business. The presidential elections should have been the most important event for the society, however when compared with previous years they seemed to be less spectacular. It’s worth to mention the waves of arrests. Dozens of people were arrested on trumped -up charges,” he said.
Gadirli also mentioned the arrests of NIDA movement activists and the leader of REAL Ilgar Mammadov. According to the expert, the Azerbaijani society is experiencing important processes. “Political system is not as strong and solid as it was before. In previous years we witnessed that the society and the opposition created much more visible anxiety for the authorities. They didn’t remain inert. Nowadays even a small worrisome situation encourages irritation and the authorities resort to repressions. Thus, it shows that the authorities don’t have full control of the situation. And these all happens when there is a reduction of oil revenues and low perspectives concerning the gas deals.”
Military expert Uzeir Jafarov believes that 2013 would remain in Azerbaijan’s memory as an unsuccessful year. He mentioned the unresolved conflict of Nagorno Karabakh. “The most important military event of the year was the appointment of a new Minister of Defense. Contrary to expectations, there is no much progress in the largest power structure of the society. Our soldiers continuously die in non-combat conditions, the cases of hazing among the soldiers have been observed,” he said.