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Though Ukraine and Azerbaijan share a similar past in some significant ways, what happened in Ukraine is unlikely to resonate in Azerbaijan, writes Arzu Geybullayeva in the article published on the site of the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI).

According to the author there are several reasons for this, but the biggest reason is fear. “It is entrenched so deeply in people’s minds that very few would go to the main square in the heart of Baku to raise their voices let alone set up tents and occupy the square. There is fear of the consequences to one’s self but also to one’s family members, and the fear of police brutality as seen during many other attempts to organize. This fear is greater than any will to stand up against an authoritarian ruler. Or so it seems for now,” she notes.

According to the article one more important factor is the weak opposition. Since 2003 many attempts to organize peaceful protests have been made. The ruling government made critical amendments to a number of laws, including on freedom of assembly. As a result the protests are dispersed by the police and the maximum administrative jail sentence is raised from 15 to 60 days.

The author notes that though there is a large growing discontent in Azerbaijan there is no unity among the people--or at least of the scope it was seen in Turkey or Venezuela or Ukraine. The fear that has been skillfully spread through education establishments as well as places of work have left a deep scar and a reminder of what could happen if anyone decides to cross the line and challenge the government.

“In Azerbaijan the continuously rigged elections have not been enough to cause massive uprisings as fear continues to prevail,” the author notes. She adds that in Azerbaijan, it would be impossible to stay in one place as a group of more than 10 people, let alone install a stage or a sound system or camp out and “occupy” the square. The protesters will be dispersed immediately, and at best detained and placed under administrative detention. At the least they will be charged with illegal possession of drugs, or be placed in jail for causing a mass unrest--facing a minimum of 7 years or more of imprisonment. “It is a country where activists are facing charges at the moment for using Facebook to organize,” she writes.

“Surely there have been attempts to protest--while Ukrainians burned tires and buildings during the protests, in Azerbaijan people burned themselves. Nine cases of self-immolation were recorded since December 2013,” the article reads.

In the past year there have been cases of mass protests held both in Baku and in other regions, in particular, in Ismayilli, however, none of the above mentioned attempts proved to be successful.