Economy 09:40 29/05/2014

Eastern energy pivot threatens the US dollar

By Patrick L Young 
From RT

The “Power of Siberia” is much more than a 30 year Sino-Russian gas/pipeline deal. Paying for the process accelerates the vogue to reduce dollar pricing. That, not the energy supply, will become the most acute threat to US economic hegemony.

The superlatives have flowed as effortlessly as one day the gas will. At a stroke Russia has hugely diversified its energy sales with a $400 billion pivot. A fascinating by-product of the energy factor is the money element. The singular superpower era has been fuelled by an American economy benefitting from “dollarization”. Global reserve currency status has hugely fuelled America’s ongoing experiment in "government by irrational exuberance." Washington has grown addicted to borrowing cheaply, exploiting its reserve currency to spend liberally on all vestiges of government. Thus the powerhouse private economy of the United States runs parallel to a massively inefficient government spending machine. Being a reserve currency has multiple benefits - other nations habitually trade in dollars thanks to global benchmarks. Hence, oil, gas and indeed illicit narcotics are all traditionally priced in the dear old greenback. Surplus dollars often find their way back to the USA and end up holding US Treasury Bonds - the debt which feeds big government.

Recent moves to break dollar hegemony in energy pricing have been led by various Gulf states. Now, China and Russia have a perfect opportunity to circumvent dollars entirely with their bilateral deals creating a $77 billion pipeline (the world’s largest construction project) as well as the $400 billion gas transfer agreement. Thus the “Power of Siberia” is not merely an apt name for the pipeline stretching from Eastern Siberia to China’s populous north-eastern regions; it is also a maxim for the rise of alternative currencies.

While the US dollar epitaph has been written many times, it still isn’t imminent. However, a dollar centric era is clearly coming to an end. Despite the ongoing failure of the political euro to be recognised as a valid reserve currency, US dollar threats are emerging rapidly - free floating bitcoin, rubles and yuan can all become significant competitors to the greenback.

Even reduced reserve status has major implications for the USA. The more central banks, corporations, and indeed savers, prefer other currencies, the more difficult it is for the US to seamlessly borrow to feed its inherent overspending. Here the US is an agent in its own demise. Tax laws like FATCA and a misguided neocon ‘sanctionmania’ are driving alternative stores of value, even before we factor in the destructive impact on savers of the Fed’s quantitative easing.

QE is akin to another reserve currency trait, known in the economics fraternity as “exorbitant privilege.” For the US to pay bills, it can just print more cash and satisfy any debt denominated in dollars. The increasingly integrated global economy has enabled Washington to abuse exorbitant privilege at a scale unknown to previous reserve currency nations such as Imperial Britain.

While the US dollar has been the established pricing unit for global energy, the petrocurrency play has helped maintain US reserve currency hegemony. However, America has overplayed its cards, borrowing too heavily, ignoring fiscal discipline and then endeavouring to bully the rest of the world to maintain its erratic standards. Ironically even the ‘good news’ of US shale further weakens the dollar’s reserve status. With less import demand from an increasingly self-sufficient US, why will exporters want to price in US dollars? After all, the world’s biggest oil importer China already has grave misgivings about the US dollars it holds. Indeed its existing energy deals with Brazil bypass the dollar.

The Eastern trade pivot will take a remarkable edge off America’s ability to simply kick the can down the road fiscally. Meanwhile the US government needs to borrow (conservatively) $2.7 billion per day. “The Power of Siberia” will likely be financed in construction and operation through expansion of the existing Sino-Russian swap facilities established between Beijing and Moscow i.e. without recourse to US dollars. Thus removing the dollar from the energy price is becoming more feasible by the day. Any expansion may not be very apparent by 2018 when the pipeline is due to open. Nevertheless ongoing US dollar hegemony is being endangered by each and every eastern trade deal.

In Washington DC, the pork barrel politicians of “Kickcanistan” must adjust their thinking, and particularly their spending, to take account of the eastern pivot. 



Source Panorama.am
Share |
Տեքստում սխալ կամ վրիպակ նկատելու դեպքում, ուղարկեք խմբագրին հաղորդագրություն` նշելով տվյալ սխալը, այնուհետև սեղմելով Ctrl-Enter:

Newsfeed

13:05
WTA Hobart: Avanesyan loses semifinal to Kessler
American McCartney Kessler moved into the final of the WTA Hobart International by edging out Armenian Elina Avanesyan, the No 6 seed, 4-6, 6-3,...
12:30
Armenian State Symphony Orchestra to perform at Dubai Opera
The Armenian State Symphony Orchestra will present the Symphonic Rock concert series in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from January 17 to 19,...
12:14
Armenian archbishop voices support for Artsakh leaders facing sham trials in Baku
Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan has expressed support for Artsakh’s military and political leaders, as well as other Armenian prisoners...
11:35
Death toll in Los Angeles wildfires rises to 10
At least 10 people are believed to be dead as wildfires continue to scorch many cities in the Los Angeles County area, Euronews reported....
11:24
Fog blankets parts of Armenia
The Rescue Service has warned drivers of a road closure in Armenia. In particular, the road connecting the Amberd high mountain...
11:11
Armenia offers condolences amid devastating wildfires in California
The Armenian Foreign Ministry has extended condolences to those affected by the devastating wildfires in California. "Saddened by...
17:19
Pashinyan could recall CSTO after Aliyev's remarks, top Russian official says
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev claims that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan could recall the...
16:46
Over 137,000 people evacuated amid Los Angeles wildfires
At least five wildfires are raging in Los Angeles - the two largest cover more than 27,000 acres and are 0% contained, BBC News reports....
16:30
Fog expected to hit some parts of Armenia
Dry weather is expected in Armenia's regions on Thursday and over the next few days. No precipitation is forecast for the capital...
16:05
Kremlin doubts Armenia can be member of both EU and EAEU
Armenia can hardly be a member of both the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a...
15:36
MP calls for int'l action to prevent Azeri aggression against Armenia
Opposition lawmaker Tigran Abrahamyan has warned that Azerbaijani is planning fresh aggression against Armenia, calling on international actors...
15:00
Russia to continue building relations with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kremlin says
Moscow is committed to peace, stability, and security in the Caucasus and will continue to strengthen relations with both Baku and Yerevan,...
14:38
Expert: Armenian leadership lacks 'plan B' for possible war
Political analyst Suren Sargsyan has called out the Armenian authorities for failure to handle security challenges facing the country....
14:06
Catholicos Aram I closely following California wildfire crisis
In recent hours, His Holiness Catholicos Aram I of the Great House of Cilicia has reached out multiple times to the Prelate of the Western...
13:36
US refrains from commenting on strategic partnership with Armenia for now
The United States “has nothing to comment on or announce at this point” regarding the potential signing of a strategic partnership...
13:08
Armenian government backs EU accession bid
The Armenian government has expressed support for a legislative initiative to launch a process for the country’s accession to the European...
12:36
Baku TV again falsely presents ancient Armenian church as Azerbaijani heritage
A pro-government TV channel in Baku has once again falsely presented the 7th-century Armenian monastery of Harichavank as part of...
12:00
Lucas Zelarayán returns to Belgrano
Belgrano de Córdoba has officially announced the return of Lucas Zelarayán after weeks of uncertainty, during which the club...
11:45
Fog hits Armenian town
The Rescue Service has warned drivers of a road closure in Armenia as of Thursday morning. In particular, the road connecting the...
11:33
Hobart International: Elina Avanesyan through to semifinals
Armenian Elina Avanesyan, the No 6 seed, advanced to the last four of the Hobart International after American Amanda Anisimova, the No 3 seed,...
11:22
Armenian school destroyed in California wildfires
As the windstorm wreaking havoc across Los Angeles County continues to rage, its devastating impact has left thousands homeless, evacuated,...
17:07
Screen Actors Guild Awards cancel live nominations due to Los Angeles wildfires
The Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) nominations have cancelled an in-person announcement planned for today due to devastating wildfires and...
16:53
Ex-ombudsman urges escape from Armenian government's 'propaganda trap'
Former Armenian Ombudsman Arman Tatoyan has warned of existential threats facing Armenia following Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s...
16:11
Iran's top security official to visit Armenia after Azerbaijan tour
The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has arrived in the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, for political and security...
15:33
Aliyev, an aggressor, demands human behavior from others
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev seems to be rapidly "thriving" in his rhetoric. His brazen comments, especially after the...
14:34
Human metapneumovirus causes relatively mild symptoms, WHO says
“Amid reports of rising wintertime respiratory infections in China – including human metapneumovirus – and the impact on...
14:07
Armenian deputy sports minister resigns
Armenia’s Minister of Education, Science, Culture and Sports Zhanna Andreasyan on Wednesday confirmed the resignation of her deputy,...
13:30
Pashinyan responds to Aliyev
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan responded to the latest statements by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in an interview with...
13:16
Meta ends fact-checking on Facebook, Instagram
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Tuesday the social media giant was rolling back the use of third-party fact-checkers on its platforms, starting...
13:05
Armenian, Azeri border commissions to hold fresh talks soon
The Armenian and Azerbaijani border delimitation commissions, led by the deputy prime ministers of the two countries, will hold a new round of...

Follow us and get updates!

Most popular articles

{"core.blocks.header.spell_message1":"Selected mistake: ","core.blocks.header.spell_message2":"Send a message about the mistake?"}