U.S. expert about growing tension between U.S. and Azerbaijan
U.S. analyst Gerald Robbins, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, who specializes on the Caucasus region, commented on the U.S.-Azerbaijani ties which have recently strained by escalating official rhetoric in Baku against Ambassador Richard Morningstar's latest interview to the Radio Liberty, Turan reports.
“I generally agree with the Ambassador’s comments... which in diplomatic phrasings, reflect calibrated viewpoints that's needed when assessing Azerbaijan,” in an interview with TURAN said Mr. Robbins, who once served as Program Director for Freedom House in Baku during the mid-1990's.
The expert noted that part of Washington’s stand is due to Azerbaijan’s being tenuously located between Russia and Iran. Given the rising threats that both these nations convey, maintaining a stable Caspian environment is an important theme. He believes that Azerbaijan's energy potential undoubtedly reinforces this outlook in US and Western diplomatic circles. In the meantime, Robbins emphasized that the regional stability does not depend solely on conflicts but on the democracy level as well, he said, adding that Ambassador Morningstar's answers reflect this dilemma.
“Overall, it's a challenge that's generally confronting America's foreign policy outlook Advocating greater political freedom can cause uncertainty and serious instability. The Arab Spring's aftermath is a good example,” Robbins said arguing, whereas Washington had advocated the need for change in that region, the results have led to a more cautious vision.
Asked whether Baku officials’ accusing Washington of "financing, and orchestrating 'Euromaidans'” reflect growing tensions in US-Azerbaijani relations, Robbins said, he didn’t believe there's a conscientious effort by America to orchestrate political unrest in Azerbaijan.
As for the US-Azerbaijani ties, the analyst explained that there's more frustration than tension that's currently defining relations: “If stability is the main concern, then how does democracy get promoted? Is it a total or gradual process? Given regional circumstances, can a democratization process be successfully managed? Both sides need to specifically address these questions to allay confusion and misperceptions,” Robbins believes.
Speaking about the regional challenges in a wake of Ukrainian events, Robbins said, the crisis in the neighborhood places Azerbaijan in a very tenuous position. “The Kremlin's actions in Crimea and Western Ukraine are “a warning that Azerbaijan's energy potential can be readily confiscated, particularly if it's viewed as a competing threat to Russian input,” he said.
“If the U.S. and Europe's muted response to the crisis continues, there must be a heightened sense of anxiety in Baku and neighboring capitals about Western resolve,” he noted.
For Robbins, settling the Nagorno-Karabakh issue seems very remote at this point, accentuated by Crimea's recent annexation.
“I don't believe Russia would enact a similar operation regarding Azerbaijan, but likely use subversive means to undermine governmental authority,” the analyst believes. He also said that the Obama administration's "leading from behind" policy doctrine “isn't working and needs to assume a more proactive role.”
U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Richard Morningstar in an interview with the Azerbaijani service of "Radio Liberty" stated that the Azerbaijani authorities put artificial barriers for the development of civil society for no reason, and persecute and suppress the freedom of speech and the media. If they continue this policy it may eventually lead to "Maidan" in Azerbaijan, and they should not blame the West for this.
After the interview of the Ambassador, Deputy Heads of Azerbaijani Presidential Administration Novruz Mammadov and Ali Hasanov, Foreign Ministry spokesman Elman Abdullayev and the head of the administration Ramiz Mehtiyev had harshly criticized Ambassador Morningstar and the U.S. as a whole. In its turn, the U.S. embassy stated, that it is not agree with such criticism.