Terrorists changing strategy in Iraq - Nabil Mikhail
Press TV has conducted an interview with Nabil Mikhail, professor at George Washington University from Washington, to discuss the latest series car bomb attacks across Iraq's capital that left more than 60 people dead.
Press TV: What are the main reasons for the recent increase in violence and terrorism in Iraq?
Mikhail: It has to do with the decisions of the leaders of these groups. They feel frustrated because they cannot make progress on the Syrian front. They feel also contained and encircled by the central forces of the government of Baghdad. They are trying to adopt some sort of Baghdad-first or big-cities-first strategy.
Applying guerrilla method of hit-and-run and frankly they are good at it. They are highly mobilized, they can launch surprise and a quick attack but also they are not powerful enough to seize a territory or a building and then bargain.
So, they cannot have the chance either to bargain or something they control or that they can be very successful and basically subjugating the government. They are defeated but it signals out an important change in the insurgency methods. They are willing to strike first and I hope their strategic planners whether in the US or elsewhere are paying attention to that tactic.
Press TV: How capable is the Iraqi security apparatus of dealing with such terrorism?
Mikhail: This is a good question and I will tell you something. I was talking with a top strategic advisor to the US government recently and I told him that the Iraqi government does not have the capability to go to al-Anbar Province. But frankly still it’s the central government. It has all the trappings of a functioning government and it has a strong security apparatus.
And from the news we have heard is that the insurgents hit civilian populations. They malign them, they hurt them, they kill them. But the government is able to capture the insurgents. So, that’s a very important method.
But the insurgency has to be deterred. There has to be a deterrence component of the government security apparatus, meaning that they send the message to the insurgents. If you cross the line you are defeated but I expect recurrence of more of these surprise attacks but I think the government security-wise will prevail.
Press TV: Which countries do you think benefit from terrorism in Iraq?
Mikhail: Who is helping the insurgents in Iraq, any country that is really benefiting from the insurgency. So, I will say any country that is funding, if there is an evidence of funding, if there is an evidence of training. So, you have really to establish some sort of regional perspective and you have to be wise. You have to apply strong force, you have to apply diplomacy, you have to neutralize many of these groups because also there are some sub-state actors here. You have to realize that this is terrorism. This is an international phenomenon.
So, you have to own the land. The insurgents will not capture land. So, you have to assert Iraq’s sovereignty for its land and that can be the biggest defeat for any backer of the insurgency.