Your trusted source

The Azerbaijani authorities' ongoing clampdown on civil society is geared towards parliamentary elections in 2015, reads the article published on IHS Jane's site.

According to the article, on 6 October, the Norwegian Helsinki Committee awarded 98 political prisoners in Azerbaijan the prestigious annual Andrei Sakharov Freedom Award. Since the beginning of the year, the Azerbaijani authorities have been carrying out a systematic campaign against the opposition and civil society by arresting prominent political dissidents, democracy activists, and human rights defenders. In September, security officials raided the office of apolitical, US-based non-governmental organisation (NGO) International Research and Exchanges Board (IREX), which is exclusively engaged in promoting educational activities. The government froze IREX's bank accounts as well as those of the local office of Transparency International.

IHS assesses that the campaign is orchestrated by the influential head of the presidential administration Ramiz Mehdiyev, President Ilham Aliyev's main adviser on domestic policy, in response to the ouster of former president Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine, which increased suspicions that the Western-funded NGOs will likely be used to foment civil unrest in Azerbaijan, the article reads.
By weakening both civil society and any political opposition, President Ilham Aliyev is hoping to avoid protests in the run-up to the parliamentary elections Scheduled for November 2015. The crackdown is likely to succeed and ultimately result in the desired election outcome.

A ceasefire violation, resulting in several fatalities, along the Line of Contact (LoC) between Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR), which occurred on the night of 31 July/1 August, marked the most significant escalation In response to the violence, Russian president Vladimir Putin arranged a meeting in Sochi, attended by the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents. Aliyev was reportedly warned not to entertain any notions of resolving the Karabakh conflict by force, according to several Azerbaijani military analysts.

In an attempt to mitigate a potential Armenian ballistic missile threat, Azerbaijan is developing missile defence capability. Likely modelled after Israel's "Iron Dome", this air defence system is designed to shield Azerbaijan's key government buildings, military installations, and critical energy infrastructure, including the Sangachal terminal, from potential retaliation by Armenia using its Russian-supplied Scud-B and Tochka-U ballistic missiles.

The current stalemate over Ukraine creates strategic uncertainty and makes it more likely that the Azeri government will abstain from provocations for fear of potential miscalculation. Finally, Azerbaijan will host major international sporting events in 2015 (First European Games), 2016 (42nd Chess Olympiad and F1 European Grand Prix), which also mitigate war risks in the three-year outlook.

According to Azerbaijani sources close to 100 Azeri nationals are reported to have died in the Syrian conflict, but there are no reliable estimates of the number currently fighting there. News reports from Azeri open sources suggest there are between 100 and 400 fighters. Azerbaijani militants take advantage of a visa-free regime with Turkey to travel to Syria. A number of factors have resulted in Sumgait emerging as the hotspot of Sunni extremism. There are periodic police raids in Sumgait and other hotspots, including northern areas populated by ethnic minorities (Qusar and Qakh districts), the article reads.