Analysis 10:04 28/10/2014

Re-elected Dilma wins in a Brazil broken in two

By Pepe Escobar, RT

President Dilma Rousseff of the ruling Worker's Party (PT) was re-elected this Sunday in a tight run-off against opposition candidate Aecio Neves of the Social Democracy Party of Brazil (PSDB).

Sun, sex, samba, carnival and at least until the recent World Cup hammering by Germany, the “land of football.” And don’t forget “vibrant democracy.” Even as it enjoys one of the highest soft power quotients around the world, Brazil remains submerged by clichés.

“Vibrant democracy” certainly lived up to its billing in this hard-fought presidential election. Yet another cliché would rule this was the victory of “state-centric” policies against “structural reforms.” Or the victory of “high social spending” against a “pro-business” approach – which implies business as the privileged enemy of social equality.

Exit clichés. Enter a cherished national motto: ‘Brazil is not for beginners.’

Indeed. Brazil’s complexities boggle the mind. It starts with arguably the key, multi-layered message a divided country sent to winner Dilma Rousseff. We are part of a growing middle class. We are proud to be part of an increasingly less unequal nation. But we want social services to keep improving. We want more investment in education. We want inflation under control (at the moment, it's not). We support a very serious anti-corruption drive (here’s where Dilma’s Brazil meets Xi Jinping’s China). And we want to keep improving on the economic success of the past decade.

Rousseff seems to get the message. The question is how she will be able to deliver – in a continental-sized nation suffering from appalling education standards, with Brazilian manufacturing largely uncompetitive in global markets, and with corruption run amok.

Those ignorant, arrogant elites

Brazil is now mired in dismal GDP growth of 0.3 percent. Just blaming the global crisis doesn’t cut it; South American neighbors Peru at 3.6 percent, and Colombia with 4.8 percent are definitely going places in 2014.

And yet the numbers are not that shabby. Job creation is up. Unemployment is down to only 5.4 percent. Investment in social infrastructure is picking up. From 2002 to 2014, the minimum wage more than tripled. GDP per capita is up, reaching roughly $9,000 while the 2012 Gini coefficient of social inequality is down.

Industrial production is back to the same level before the 2008 financial crisis. Brazil paid all its debts to the IMF. The proportion of debt in relation to GDP is falling – reaching only 33.8 percent in 2013. Workers have more purchasing power – and even with rising inflation, that mirrors better income distribution.

Social programs have benefited 14 million families - roughly 50 million Brazilians. These policies may arguably be derided as too little, too late Keynesianism. But at least that’s a start – in a nation exploited by immensely ignorant, arrogant and rapacious elites for centuries.

Rousseff’s first stint as President may also be blamed for too many concessions to big extremely profitable banks in Brazil, powerful agribusiness interests and Big Capital. What happened, in a nutshell, is that the center-left Workers’ Party swung to the center – and was compelled to make unsavory oligarchic alliances. The result is that a significant section of its social base – the metropolitan working class, now heavily indebted to sustain its brand new consumer dream - ended up flirting with the right as a political alternative.

Add to it the PT’s not exactly brilliant management skills. True, the fight against poverty is a lofty ideal. But in such an unequal nation, that will take at least until 2030 for really serious results. Meanwhile, serious planning is in order - such as building a high-speed railway between the two megalopolises, Rio and Sao Paulo (the Chinese would do it in a few months). And seriously tackling Brazil’s oligopolies; banks, corporate media, construction/real estate conglomerates, the auto industry lobby.

And the loser is…neoliberalism

Unlike the US and Europe, neoliberalism in Brazil has been repeatedly knocked out at the ballot box since 2002, when Lula was first elected President. As for the “social democrat” opposition, there’s nothing social, and barely democratic, about it. The PSDB’s pet project is turbo-neoliberalism, pure and simple.

Team Neves had everything going for them. Their key constituency was in fact 60 million mostly angry Brazilian taxpayers - over 80 percent living and working in the wealthier southeastern seaboard. Life is tough if you are a Brazilian salaried professional or the owner of a small and medium enterprise (SME). The tax burden is on a par with the industrialized world – but you get virtually nothing in return.

No wonder these irate taxpayers are desperate for decently paved roads, urban security, better public hospitals, a public school system they can send their children to, and less red tape and bureaucracy – which add to the nefarious, universally known “Brazilian cost” (as in no value for money). These are not Workers’ Party voters – although some of them were. What they want is galaxies beyond the everyday tribulations of the new, large lower middle class created by the social programs first implemented by Lula.

Yet with a mediocre candidate like Neves – he even lost in his home state, where he was governor - neoliberalism does not need enemies.

Neves predictably billed himself as the dragon who would slay what Wall Street derides as “statism” - cutting government spending and “liberalizing” trade, code for privileging corporate US interests. At the same time Neves has never been able to capture the vote of an overburdened black woman in the favelas.

With Neves, Brazil’s future Finance Minister would have been Arminio Fraga, a slick operator who, among other things, ran high-risk funds in emerging markets for George Soros and is also a former president of Brazil’s Central Bank. Some of his shenanigans are detailed in More Money than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite, by Sebastian Mallaby. Fraga would have been the point man of a Soros-inspired government.

Fraga is the proverbial Wall Street predator. With him at the Finance Ministry, think J.P. Morgan controlling Brazil’s macroeconomic policy. The road in fact was already paved by PSDB’s eminence, former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who met with key global investors – via J.P. Morgan - in New York last month.

Fraga was keen on destroying the Lula and Rousseff administrations’ “hyper-Keynesian bet on demand” and replace it with supply, via a new “capitalist shock.” Predictably, his prescription was amplified by the enormous echo chamber of conservative Brazilian media, and drowned everything else.

And as perception is reality, contamination ensued - pressuring public spending downwards, installing major confusion among private investors, and leading Western credit rating agencies to confirm the supposed lack of credibility of the Brazilian economy.

And it’s the US against the BRICS

Brazil is slowly but surely moving from the semi-periphery to being closer to the center of the action in international relations; because of its own regional geopolitical relevance and mostly because of its leading role among the BRICS. This is happening even as Washington could not give a damn about Brazil - or Latin America for that matter. US “think tank-land,” by the way, abhors BRICS.

Politically, a victory for the Cardoso/Neves neoliberals - a ghost of the social democracy they once practiced - would have thrown Brazilian foreign policy upside down; not only against the way the historical winds are blowing, but also against Brazil’s own national interests.

As Rousseff argued at the UN last month, Brazil is trying to fight a global crisis marked by increasing inequality without provoking unemployment and without sacrificing workers’ jobs and salaries. As ace economist Theotonio dos Santos stressed, the decadence of the West still exerting substantial influence over the Global South via their extensive network of collaborators, he also went one up; the key fight, as he sees it, is to control Brazilian oil.

Dos Santos is referring to Brazil’s top corporation, Petrobras, currently mired in a bribery scandal - which must be fully investigated – that obscures the Holy Grail: the future revenues from “pre-salt” oil – named after the billions of barrels of oil capped by a thick layer of salt lying several miles below the South Atlantic floor. Petrobras plans to invest $221 billion up to 2018 to unlock this treasure – and expects to make a profit even if oil trades around $45 to $50 a barrel.

Politically, in a nutshell, Rousseff’s narrow victory is crucial for the future of a progressive, integrated South America. It will reinvigorate Mercosur – the common market of the South – as well as Unasur – the union of South American nations. This goes way beyond free trade; it’s about close regional integration, in parallel to close Eurasia integration.

And starting in 2015, Brazil may be on the road to renewed economic expansion again – largely boosted by the fruits of “pre-salt” and compounded with accelerated building of roads, railways, ports and airports. That is bound to have a ripple effect across Brazil’s neighbors.

As for Washington/Wall Street, the Empire of Chaos is certainly not happy – and that’s a major euphemism, especially after betting on the wrong horse, Marina Silva, a sort of Amazon rainforest-born female counterpart to Obama’s “change we can believe in.” The fact is, as much as the Brazilian model of income distribution is against the interests of big business, Brazilian foreign policy is now diametrically opposed to Washington’s.

On a lighter note, at least some things will remain the same. Like “Dilma’s diary” – an apocryphal, satirical, ghost written take on the President’s busy schedule published by top Brazilian monthly Piaui, a somewhat local version of The New Yorker. Here’s a typical entry; “I watched a whole pirate copy of Homeland. Awesome! We stayed up late, me and Patriota [the former Minister of Foreign Affairs]. He found the whole thing extremely believable!”

 Who said a “vibrant democracy” can’t also be fun? 



Source Panorama.am
Share |
Տեքստում սխալ կամ վրիպակ նկատելու դեպքում, ուղարկեք խմբագրին հաղորդագրություն` նշելով տվյալ սխալը, այնուհետև սեղմելով Ctrl-Enter:

Newsfeed

17:19
Pashinyan could recall CSTO after Aliyev's remarks, top Russian official says
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev claims that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan could recall the...
16:46
Over 137,000 people evacuated amid Los Angeles wildfires
At least five wildfires are raging in Los Angeles - the two largest cover more than 27,000 acres and are 0% contained, BBC News reports....
16:30
Fog expected to hits some parts of Armenia
Dry weather is expected in Armenia's regions on Thursday and over the next few days. No precipitation is forecast for the capital...
16:05
Kremlin doubts Armenia can be member of both EU and EAEU
Armenia can hardly be a member of both the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a...
15:36
MP calls for int'l action to prevent Azeri aggression against Armenia
Opposition lawmaker Tigran Abrahamyan has warned that Azerbaijani is planning fresh aggression against Armenia, calling on international actors...
15:00
Russia to continue building relations with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kremlin says
Moscow is committed to peace, stability, and security in the Caucasus and will continue to strengthen relations with both Baku and Yerevan,...
14:38
Expert: Armenian leadership lacks 'plan B' for possible war
Political analyst Suren Sargsyan has called out the Armenian authorities for failure to handle security challenges facing the country....
14:06
Catholicos Aram I closely following California wildfire crisis
In recent hours, His Holiness Catholicos Aram I of the Great House of Cilicia has reached out multiple times to the Prelate of the Western...
13:36
US refrains from commenting on strategic partnership with Armenia for now
The United States “has nothing to comment on or announce at this point” regarding the potential signing of a strategic partnership...
13:08
Armenian government backs EU accession bid
The Armenian government has expressed support for a legislative initiative to launch a process for the country’s accession to the European...
12:36
Baku TV again falsely presents ancient Armenian church as Azerbaijani heritage
A pro-government TV channel in Baku has once again falsely presented the 7th-century Armenian monastery of Harichavank as part of...
12:00
Lucas Zelarayán returns to Belgrano
Belgrano de Córdoba has officially announced the return of Lucas Zelarayán after weeks of uncertainty, during which the club...
11:45
Fog hits Armenian town
The Rescue Service has warned drivers of a road closure in Armenia as of  Thursday morning. In particular, the road...
11:33
Hobart International: Elina Avanesyan through to semifinals
Armenian Elina Avanesyan, the No 6 seed, advanced to the last four of the Hobart International after American Amanda Anisimova, the No 3 seed,...
11:22
Armenian school destroyed in California wildfires
As the windstorm wreaking havoc across Los Angeles County continues to rage, its devastating impact has left thousands homeless, evacuated,...
17:07
Screen Actors Guild Awards cancel live nominations due to Los Angeles wildfires
The Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) nominations have cancelled an in-person announcement planned for today due to devastating wildfires and...
16:53
Ex-ombudsman urges escape from Armenian government's 'propaganda trap'
Former Armenian Ombudsman Arman Tatoyan has warned of existential threats facing Armenia following Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s...
16:11
Iran's top security official to visit Armenia after Azerbaijan tour
The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has arrived in the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, for political and security...
15:33
Aliyev, an aggressor, demands human behavior from others
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev seems to be rapidly "thriving" in his rhetoric. His brazen comments, especially after the...
14:34
Human metapneumovirus causes relatively mild symptoms, WHO says
“Amid reports of rising wintertime respiratory infections in China – including human metapneumovirus – and the impact on...
14:07
Armenian deputy sports minister resigns
Armenia’s Minister of Education, Science, Culture and Sports Zhanna Andreasyan on Wednesday confirmed the resignation of her deputy,...
13:30
Pashinyan responds to Aliyev
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan responded to the latest statements by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in an interview with...
13:16
Meta ends fact-checking on Facebook, Instagram
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Tuesday the social media giant was rolling back the use of third-party fact-checkers on its platforms, starting...
13:05
Armenian, Azeri border commissions to hold fresh talks soon
The Armenian and Azerbaijani border delimitation commissions, led by the deputy prime ministers of the two countries, will hold a new round of...
12:36
Aliyev's threats against Armenia should serve as a 'wake-up call', politician warns
Opposition politician Eduard Sharmazanov has warned that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s fresh threats against Armenia should serve...
12:05
Hobart International: Elina Avanesyan advances to quarterfinals
Armenian Elina Avanesyan, the No 6 seed, defeated Belgian qualifier Greet Minnen 6-2, 6-2 to move into the quarterfinals of the WTA...
11:30
Rescuers in Armenia free 4 stranded vehicles in one day
The crisis management centers of Kotayk and Aragatsotn Provinces received reports of vehicles trapped on several roads in Armenia over the past...
11:20
Lladro produces 'Karabagh Horse' porcelain figurines as propaganda for Azerbaijan
By Harut Sassounian www.TheCaliforniaCourier.com Regrettably, the only things that matter in this world are money and power. All the...
11:11
Trump says meeting with Putin possible after inauguration
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has said again that he is eager to see negotiations with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine begin soon after...
17:00
Winter military draft kicks off in Armenia
The winter conscription for compulsory military service commenced in Armenia on Tuesday. A solemn ceremony was held at the Sardarapat...

Follow us and get updates!

Most popular articles

{"core.blocks.header.spell_message1":"Selected mistake: ","core.blocks.header.spell_message2":"Send a message about the mistake?"}