Repressions betray Ilham Aliyev’s increasing lack of confidence in his political future
Emin Milli, an Azerbaijani activist and the executive director of Meydan TV, a Berlin-based independent media outlet, learnt that the police forced his relatives to sign a letter pledging their loyalty to Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, Milli writes for The Washington Post .
The activist, twice jailed in Azerbaijan and currently residing in Germany, believes the government targets him and his family because Meydan TV, founded by him, reports the truth about Azerbaijan.
“But mine is just one case. There are about 100 political prisoners languishing in Azerbaijani jails,” Milli writes and points to the “rabid” crackdown the government has unleashed on oppositionists, writers and dissidents. Opposition journalists are in jail, where they are often subjected to beatings. Elections are rigged. In an astounding display of voter falsification, the results of the 2013 presidential elections revealing Ilham Aliyev’s “victory” were mistakenly released one day before the vote.
“Aliyev’s support base is much more tenuous than he likes to portray it. Dwindling oil resources are putting extra pressure on his mafia-style government. His power is propped up by a very few wealthy and highly organized criminal groups that work in concert with the state. The oil money allows this small group to monopolize the media. Even small online media outlets are viewed as a threat to the authoritarian infrastructure,” Milli highlights.
For more than a decade, high oil prices shielded Aliyev’s power from dissent, yet, after more than a decade of hollow talk about diversifying the economy, the state budget still relies on hydrocarbons for 70 percent of its revenue and 95 percent of exports. The falling oil prices are shaking the foundations of Aliyev’s “petro-state,” with the reserves of the State Oil Fund, which contributes billions to the state budget, rapidly decreasing. The national currency suffered a drastic devaluation of about 33 percent, with experts and citizens expecting yet another devaluation this year.
“The recent wave of repression betrays Aliyev’s increasing lack of confidence in his political future when the foundations of his economic power are gradually eroding. The Azerbaijani government has destroyed its civil society in a calculated effort to preempt the possibility of a gradual transition. Liberal groups capable of competing for power have been destroyed,” Milli writes. “By dismembering and attacking independent media, Aliyev is destroying the future of the country and its long-term stability.”
Earlier, in an appeal to Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, 23 relatives of the director of Meydan TV, Emin Milli, declared they cut ties with him. Emin Milli’s relatives’ desperate step may be connected with June 27 arrest of his wife’s brother, programmer Nazim Agabekov, who was later “found to possess drugs.” This was perceived by many as a form of pressure on the oppositionist blogger.
On 26 June 2015, Emin Milli reported that he had received a threat from the Azerbaijani Minister of Youth and Sport, Azad Rahimov, in connection with his critical reporting on the European Games. During the European Games, Meydan TV’s materials were widely used by the international media, including stories on the Azerbaijani bus driver who crashed into three Austrian swimmers and the interview by a national television station of a fake British tourist. Milli himself also gave more than 20 interviews on the games to the international media stating that Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev is responsible for the threat against him.
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