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The Syrian conflict showed that Syria’s authorities were losing territories (to the opposition, Kurds) and this reality  made the Assad regime to concentrate Syrian troops in major regional centers – mostly in the northwestern, western and southwestern directions  -   to maintain the frontline, preventing opposition groups to advance and weaken their troops by means of air strikes.

Yet, as the Syrian authorities’ request to Moscow for military assistance on September 30 demonstrated, the abovementioned tactics became unsuccessful and air strikes by the Syrian air force were unable to halt the advance of the opposition. 

Widely circulating Western media reports to the effect that Russian air strikes are against ‘moderate Syrian rebel groups’ are baseless.  All those who are more are less familiar with the ongoing developments in Syria by following the situation there know that moderate rebels have long ago lost ground to the radical forces and they are no longer influential in Syria.  Therefore Russian air strikes target radical Islamist groups (and not only the positions of ISIS). Otherwise, air strikes on the so-called moderate rebels, currently of little significance, would be illogical.

True, Russian air strikes indicate d that Russia is not going to conduct a ground operation (in any case, at the present stage the Russian authorities will limit themselves to air operations), nevertheless those air strikes are efficient for domestic developments in Syria, and for that reason also important from the following viewpoints:

-  Air strikes of Russia prevent Islamists from advancing towards northwestern, western and southwestern areas of vital importance to the Syrian government. Moreover, Russia’s air operations force Islamists to move towards the east where we are likely to witness clashes with radicalized ISIS militants.

- The precise and quite effective strikes by the Russian air force may provide food for thought to Islamists willing to travel to the Middle East from different parts of the world to engage in Jihad. The Syrian air force lack capabilities for such pinpoint strikes  so Syrian warplanes do not pose as much danger to Islamists as pinpoint strikes carried out with Russia’s modern equipment.   

- The geography of Russian rocket and bomb strikes in Syria in recent days indicates that strikes are also conducted near Aleppo (of special importance to us), near Islamists positions. Given the fact that ground operations of the Syrian government troops and other forces are underway in parallel – both in Aleppo and other parts of Syria, the situation  may change in those areas, which may prove to be effective as regards the further developments in the Syrian conflict.  

by Sargis Grigoryan,  Arabist