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There is little likelihood of a resumption of hostilities in the Karabakh conflict zone because Azerbaijan is not prepared economically and also lacks military potential, political scientist Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan said at a press conference today when discussing the current situation on the line of contact between the armed forces of Karabakh and Azerbaijan.

“President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev has no political resources within the country and in the region,” he said.

Melik-Shahnazaryan spoke about two reasons for escalation of the situation in the past few days. “One reason is the December 6 constitutional referendum in Armenia. Azerbaijan always intensifies its actions on the border during electoral processes, and its aim does not consist in destabilizing the situation. Azerbaijan tries to solve reconnaissance issues, i.e. to see how the Armenian side will react to external challenges in force majeure circumstances, how it can mobilize its resources and promptly deal with problems. And the second reason is the upcoming meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents. The Azerbaijani authorities want to make sure that either the meeting will not take place or the border situation, rather than the peace process, was discussed at the meeting. In other words, they are trying to change the meeting’s agenda”.

According to H. Melik-Shahnazaryan, Azerbaijan avoids the negotiating process as that country believes that a solution advantageous to it cannot be found during negotiations.

“By escalating tensions, Azerbaijan is playing for time.  Azerbaijan understands that it cannot achieve its goal through military actions, and it also believes that over time something may change in the region and its position will become more favorable for making great demands,” the expert noted.
In his words, in this situation the Armenian side’s demands should be addressed not to the OSCE as an institution, but to the OSCE Minks Group co-chair states (the U.S., Russia, France) in order to ask them to do everything to deter Azerbaijan’s militarist policy, while the needed mechanisms are in the capital cities of those countries.

The political scientist said one should not have great expectations from the upcoming meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

“The negotiating process and the border situation are two different phenomena. One thing is happening in reality, and another thing not reflecting the border events is happening at the negotiating table. One side wants real talks, and the policy of the other is not conducive to the problem’s resolution. There is hope that the meeting will at least help reduce tensions,” he said.