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The situation in the Karabakh conflict zone this year can be described as tense and this kind of situation has existed since July-August 2014, political scientist Alexander Markarov told Panorama.am when commenting on the situation regarding the Karabakh conflict in 2015. 

“The downing of the Armenian helicopter clearly showed that we are dealing with a different level of tension. Of course, there has been a ‘neither peace nor war’ situation for over two decades, but it is obvious that during this period the ‘caliber’ of tension has increased both literally and figuratively, which is evident from the fact that the Azerbaijani side has begun using grenade launchers and tanks,” he said.

Moreover, according to Markarov, tensions continue mounting, while attempts of the international community and the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs to “call Azerbaijan to order” yield no results. 

“The only force capable to do it is the Armenian side that has undertaken this educational work,” he noted.

Markarov stressed the importance of the fact that this year the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs in their statements have clearly indicated the side directly responsible for keeping and increasing the tension on Armenia-Azerbaijan border and the line of contact between the armed forces of Karabakh and Azerbaijan. “As regards the planned meeting of Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, in this situation the main issue that can and should be discussed is reducing the tension on the border and returning to the situation that existed at least 1-2 years ago. Of course, that issue cannot be considered a super task during the talks. Yet, based on the present situation and the information available now, new developments conducive to the establishment of peace can be expected,” the expert noted.

In his words, the continuation of the negotiating process will mean that the Azerbaijani side understands that it is first of all Baku that needs to be present at the negotiating table. 

“The Armenian side for its part not only continues efforts toward a peaceful settlement of the conflict, but also insists that it is the only possible way,” Markarov said.

In his opinion, Russia-Turkey tension may affect the Karabakh conflict zone. However, despite Turkey’s significant influence on Azerbaijan, Baku realizes that an excessive escalation may lead to spontaneous consequences exactly for the Azerbaijani side.

“As regards Russia-Turkey-Armenia relations, the tension of the 1990s is unlikely to recur. At the moment the matter concerns diplomatic and economic measures, rather than a military confrontation,” A. Markarov said.