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“The work aimed at setting up a political party significantly advanced. I am not ready yet to announce the establishment of a party at this moment, but I eventually will,” former Foreign Minister of Armenia, MP Vartan Oskanian said.  As a matter of fact, he presented a bid for assuming an active political role in the near future.

Nothing unusual or even extraordinary in what he said. Oskanian previously presented such bids at least twice, and mostly failed on both occasions. There is every reason to take his political aspirations with a bit of skepticism.

Mr. Oskanian might deny, however his first coming to an active political scene dated back in 2006. Few would remember that then Foreign Minister Oskanian, engaged exclusively with diplomacy and being solely a technical member of the cabinet (he mostly used to skip the government sessions) all of a sudden switched to domestic political agenda in his public speeches.

The media wrote then that those whimsical manifestations were dictated by then President Robert Kocharyan’s political plans. In particular, rumors were spread that Kocharyan mulled over localizing the Russian model in Armenia. Therefore, he needed a loyal figure that could serve as a fictional president and a political pillar for him to prolong his eventual rule as a Prime Minister. Vartan Oskanian agreed de facto to play such a role and never denied a direct media inquiry “whether he could be considered as a presidential candidate or a competitor to other known candidates”. His responses were about reflections on the quality of the past elections with remarks: “A 15-year experience is really enough to see all the problems and shortcomings. We cannot just turn a blind eye and disregard all this. Political forces should provide “platform solutions” to all those problems.”

Vartan Oskanian himself disregarded «all this» in 2007 Parliamentary elections when the Republican Party gained a majority in the National Assembly, and formed a coalition with other parties capable of providing “platform solutions” – namely, the Prosperous Armenia Party and Dashnaktsutyun. The story ended when incumbent President Robert Kocharyan visited the Republican Party headquarters to congratulate the winners personally.

The second coming of Vartan Oskanian differed in tactical sense. If he used to be a power representative, relying on administrative resource and intrigues inside the power vertical in early 2000s, things changed in late 2010s when he positioned himself as a radical opposition figure launching a harsh criticism toward the government. Following many public speeches he found a shelter at the Prosperous Armenia party and got elected to the National Assembly in 2012 through the party list. The press speculated over the role designed for Oskanian who was believed to promote Kocharyan’s «course» within the party. Furthermore, he was ascribed for preparing for the 2013 Presidential elections. Oskanyan never dismissed those allegations and apparently considered or was considered by others to capitalize on the Prosperous Armenia resources.

But thing went out of the order, and Oskanian’s political plans ended in a fiasco once again even prior its launch. Criminal charges on money laundry were brought against him on grounds of a big amount of money transferred to his personal bank accounts allegedly for philanthropy.
A tireless critic of the authorities, and staunch supporter of the rule of law and social justice, the former Foreign Minister did not deny those allegations but deemed the case as politically motivated. Some may even share his view and sympathize with him. Yet it was ironic that Oskanian wanted to play big politics without even getting used to the set rules and remove the skeletons from his wardrobe.

Overall, Oskanian’s presidential ambitions for 2013 evaporated again and the process entered the next phase. The former Foreign Minister hoped to enter the scene after rehabilitation, this time in an expedited regime. That was the exact demand of the well-known trio of forces in 2015. Oskanian participated in all public rallies of the trio in a duteous way. Though, later on it was revealed that the main pillar of the trio – Gagik Tsarukyan – had certain reservations about shaking the situation in the country, which, in effect, neutralized Oskanian’s aspirations.  

Now, when the configurations on the political landscape are more or less clear and it’s obvious that Oskanian and his hypothetical «umbrella» have no place, former Foreign Minister is trying to step into the same river again. This time he is trying to attack the authorities neither from within, nor from the street, but behind their backs. For that he needs a political party where he would be the decision maker opt to make no compromises with the authorities (as Gagik Tsarukian did), and an invisible power that would secure the behind-the-scene support and loyalty from powerful figures within the government.

One could calmly observe the process underway in case other figure were at stake but taking into account that is Oskanian who has taken the floor, one can foresee yet another fiasco to be witnessed. The fiasco by the way began with the recent interview where Vartan Oskanian, made so many contradictory claims characteristic of him that his bid should no more be regarded seriously.

P.S. Skepticism over Oskanian’s political prospects is especially nurtured by the fact that he lacks any resource both as an independent political actor and a political side  - be that a political, electoral or team, or so called image resource. We will discuss this in more details next.