Your trusted source

The South Caucasus policy tends to change rapidly, political scientist Alexandr Margarov told reporters at the press conference held in Yerevan. According to the speaker, the situation is constantly changing in the Line of Contact between Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan as well.

“If previous discussion were primarily about the low intensity of the military operations, the situation changed after early April developments for the Armenian sides as well.  This requires new responses as to how we see the future settlement of the conflict,” the speaker said.

Margarov outlined different scenarios for possible developments, one of them - getting back to the situation before early April, the other - resuming the military actions at a higher intensity, and the last, as a scenario of less likelihood - returning to the negotiation table out of certain considerations for each party.   

“Proposals laid on the negotiation table are more or less understandable, and the questions are whether the parties are ready to use them,” Margarov asked.

The speaker then added that a constructive scenario should be found to exit the situation occurred as the negotiation process does not work, though other parties are involved aiming avoiding the conflict to keep at hot phase.   

“They are assigned with relative tasks.  The question is to what extent those may be brought into reality. Considering the previous experience it is unlikely that the OSCE Minsk Group may issue targeted statements and calls to Azerbaijan to cease the military operations or the threat of them. Ultimately, Azerbaijan may annoy the Co-Chairman and the latter may warn it Azerbaijan through official and semi-official channels about the lack of guarantee that Armenia may not recognize the Nagorno Karabakh Republic  - that was pledged to avoid earlier,” Margarov said.

In response to the question whether Azerbaijan may escalate the situation during May holidays, the political scientist referred to a matter of calculation by Azerbaijan:  “It is unlikely that Azerbaijan wants to start a process and suffer another defeat. First, they should be confident about having some success which is not guaranteed by anybody,” Margrarov stressed.