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Escalations on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict zone will likely be repeated, Director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan told Panorama.am speaking about the April war and the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

“It is quite hard to make predictions in terms of the time, yet generally we may track a certain logic in the development of the process. Over the recent 8-9 years the process has gone on at a more or less comprehensible pace. Tensions have been gradually increasing, the number of incidents and violations on the border as well. It is unlikely to stop. Those expectations are not justified after each phase of the escalation,” noted Iskandaryan.

To the political scientist, ongoing risks have increased after the April developments.

“I think political leverage to prevent those escalations have no much effect. I would be happy to have been mistaken, however the probability of recurrence of what we saw is high,” Iskandaryan said.

Touching upon the Vienna Summit on May 16 with the participation of the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents Iskandaryan said the meeting served its purpose.

“The meeting was the rehabilitation of the political format, the Misnk process. That is actually one of the formats of political security. However, I think the process is not sufficient to stop the violence,” Iskandaryan emphasized.

He then noted co-chairing states have clear understanding of the motives and the purposes of each of the sides.

“The point is not to realize that but rather to develop measures to somehow affect the situation Theoretically, those are great powers and may do virtually whatever they deem with regard to such a conflict.

“Yet we should not forget that about 50 similar conflicts exist, and the world faces number of urgent problems – Syria, ISIS, Kurdistan, Donbas among them. No one has interest in direct intervention into the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, while political impact is not sufficient,” concluded Iskandaryan.