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Constitutional Referendum in Azerbaijan was not compatible with the country’s international obligations, AnarMammadli – the head of the Election Monitoring and Democracy Studies Center – told the website of the Azerbaijani newspaper Azadliq.

“All the phases of the referendum did not meet Azerbaijan’s international obligations. For example, the authorities did not provide information to the voters about the essence of the amendments, there was no corresponding political atmosphere ahead of referendum, the condition of the suffrage did not meet the demands of international standards,”Mammadli stated.

He also noted that for the past few years, the Azerbaijani authorities have restricted the freedom of local and international non-governmental organizations (NGO), imposed high tax fines on them, as well as persecuted NGO leaders. After the statement about the referendum was issued, politically motivated arrests have intensified, and the number of political prisoners has increased in the country.

Meanwhile, AleksandarNikoloski – the head of the delegation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) –called on the Azerbaijani government to respect the opinion of the Venice Commission concerning relevant laws during the further process of implementation of the modifications to the Constitution.

The PACE delegation also called on the Azerbaijani authorities to hold broader open and public dialogue with the opposition and expressed its concern over the arrests on criminal charges of a number of activists ahead of referendum insisting that the authorities improve the conditions of the election procedures.

Meanwhile, the Azerbaijani news agency Turan reports that the National Council of Democratic Forces called on the Azerbaijani nation not to accept the results of the referendum and to struggle until the end for the overturn of the results of the poll.

According to the information, in its September 27 statement, the National Council also called on the international institutions, before which Azerbaijan has obligations, to influence IlhamAliyev’s regime “in order to overturn the results of the poll, which does not reflect the will of the nation.”

The representatives of the National Council stated that although the Central Elections Committee announced a 70% turnout, the population actually boycotted the voting. In addition, the referendum was held in an atmosphere of total falsifications – “carousels,” and mass ballot-stuffing. Media representatives and active citizens filmed the falsifications, they are also fixed by surveillance cameras of the polling stations.

Turan also reports that in its initial conclusion about the September 26 referendum, the opposition party Musavatnoted that the referendum was held without explaining to the nation the necessity of constitutional amendments, without the assessment of the Venice Commission of the Council of Europe, and in an atmosphere of the absence of free political competition, as well as equal opportunities for agitation.The voting was not free and fair and was not based on the norms of international standards.
It was noted in the report that the executive secretary of the movement ReAlNatigJafarli, NiDa activist ElgizGahramanov, APFP activists FaigAmirli and FuadAhmedli were arrested on trumped-up charges.

Contrary to the previous recommendations by the CoE Venice Commission, ODIHR OSCE, and other organizations, the electoral law has not been improved: the staffs of the electoral commissions were not balanced and remained under the control of the authorities, and the procedures of the examination of the complaints were not changed.

Taking into account the above, Musavat thinks that the referendum failed, and the voting was not free and fair. The results of the referendum do not reflect the will of the nation. The absence of the majority of electorate in the referendum showed that the population is against the concentration of power in the hands of clans and is committed to republican values. On that ground, Musavat demanded to overturn the results of September 26 referendum.

Meanwhile, famous journalist Khadija Ismayilova told the Caucasian Knot that the Azerbaijani president IlhamAliyev initiated the constitutional changes and amendments in order to keep stability in his team. It is more difficult for the president to keep the stability of the regime, especially in conditions of the sharp drop of oil revenues taking into account that the members of his team are loyal only in the case of their availability to the uncontrolled use of state resources.

She paid attention to the fact that there are already public discussions that one of the young members of IlhamAliyev’s family, particularly his 19-year-old son Heydar Aliyev, may become the next president. However, Khadija Ismayilova believes that the 54-year-old IlhamAliyev has no reason to leave the post of the president, especially taking into account that there are no constitutional restrictions for his retirement from the post of the president after the 2009 amendments.

Besides, she noted that the new Constitution, which allows the president to dissolve the parliament have the following message: “the members of the parliament should always remember that they can lose their authority in case of their involvement in any conspiracies.”

MehmanAliyev – the head of the news agency Turan – also thinks that the constitutional amendments have the aim of preserving the stability of the regime.

In his turn, Isa Gambar – the former head of Musavat and the current head of the National Center for Strategic Thought – stated that the Constitutional Referendum was aimed at the concentration of the power in the hands of the ruling family.

Ali Kerimli – the leader of the Azerbaijan’s Popular Front Party (APFP) – thinks that the amendments are aimed only at the strengthening of the regime.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijani politician Leyla Aliyeva told the website EkhoKavkaza that there will be a further centralization and consolidation of the power in Azerbaijan, however, “with the involvement of fewer people.” She noted that the constitutional amendments are particularly connected with the deepening economic crisis and the desire of the authorities to strengthen the control over the society with the aim of prevention of mass protests.

In its turn, the website of the newspaper Moscow Komsomolets notes that the opposition considers the referendum “monarchial” and predicts the handing of the power from IlhamAliyev to his son. 

According to AdjarKurtov – the editor-in-chief of the journal “Problems of National Strategy” – although the official Baku tries to show its democratic attitude, it is clear that Azerbaijan is on the way of strengthening the authoritarian regime. 

Meanwhile, RIA Novosti writes that according to experts questioned by the agency, the results of the Constitutional Referendum in Azerbaijan providing for the extension of the presidential term may become a reason for conducting snap presidential elections. 

“It is quite possible that during the upcoming months – at the end of the year or at the beginning of the next year –snap presidential elections will be initiated. During snap elections, Aliyev can newly choose the members of the political elite and his supporters,”Alexander Karavayev–research officer of Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS)–told the agency.

On July 18, Azerbaijani President IlhamAliyev signed a decree to send a Project of Referendum Act on Introducing Amendments to the Constitution of Azerbaijan to the Constitutional Court of the country for consideration. The suggested amendments propose to introduce the institutes of the first vice-president and vice-presidents, who will be appointed and dismissed by the president of the country. In addition, the minimum age limit for a presidential candidate, which is now set to 35 years, will be eliminated. It is also planned to increase the presidential term from five to seven years. It is proposed to introduce an amendment in the Constitution providing for the dissolution of the parliament, a provision, which is not provided in the current Constitution.

Azerbaijani oppositionists and experts called the Constitutional amendments retrogressive considering them directed towards the strengthening of the authoritarianism in the country, which will lead to serious human rights violations.