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A year after Nagorno-Karabakh’s April 2016 violent flare-up, Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer to war than at any point since the 1994 ceasefire, reads the newly published report of the International Crisis Group (ICG) on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

The authors of the report refer to deadly incidents involving the use of heavy artillery and anti-tank weapons occurred with varying degrees of intensity along the Line of Contact (LoC) since April 2016. “The settlement process has stalled, making the use of force tempting, at least for tactical purposes; today, both sides – backed by mobilised constituencies – appear ready for confrontation. These tensions could develop into larger-scale conflict, leading to significant civilian casualties and possibly prompting the main regional powers to intervene,” said the document.

ICG suggests negotiations are the only way out of the impasse, and the best way to avert another war. “Sound principles for a realistic, fair settlement of the conflict exist, but distrust, a gap between the mediators’ and the two sides’ perceptions, and the protagonists’ heightened appetite for maximum gains likely render any immediate compromise formula remote. For both sides, either stalemate or war currently appears a better outcome than compromise.” 

According to the given recommendations, implementation of agreements discussed in Vienna and St. Petersburg – enhancing monitoring of the zone of conflict and setting up an investigative mechanism – are seen as urgently needed that should be accompanied by establishment of a channel of communication between field-based militaries on both sides.

The report in its entirety is available here.