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“It is a question of months, if not weeks, for Trans-Caucasus to turn into fire,” New Europe paper wrote in an analysis  titled “Nagorno Karabakh in fire.”

The author asserts the conflict is likely to be fueled by the Kremlin, to restore the “peace and balances” in Trans-Caucasus. “Now it seems that the Kremlin, decided to restore the “status quo ante” as the potential geopolitical re-shuffle in the area is close to the point of no-return. This is the reason Azerbaijan has gone into a crazy race of arms purchasing, from all possible suppliers,” says the article, adding for years Azerbaijan was building ties with the West which was a worrying signal for the Russians who consider the Caspian, except Iran, their economic zone.

“An armed conflict of Azerbaijan with Armenia may open another front in the east. The long-standing claims of Turkmenistan over the delineation of the continental shelf separating the territorial waters between the two countries is disputed by Ashgabat. The later claims that Apsheron (it is the Azeri peninsula in the Caspian where Baku is build), must not be considered in the delineation of the continental shelf. Baku is rejecting this claim otherwise its offshore oil fields will come under Turkmen ownership,” the author writes.

It is also noted that under any circumstances, Russians consider Azerbaijan still an intra-Soviet affair in which the United States have neither legitimate nor any other interest to intervene.