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The Azerbaijani opposition has survived, even though the civil society has been significantly repressed, writes independent researcher and College of Europe alumnus Valentin Luntumbue in The New Eastern Europe magazine, adding the Ukrainian and Georgian examples suggest Ilham Aliyev’s power is shaken, they will be ready to act.

The author describes the Azerbaijani government as “one of the most restrictive regimes on the European continent,” that introduced a series of laws and regulations affecting NGOs, their funding and activities over the recent years, resulting in an unprecedented crackdown on the NGO sector between 2014 and 2016.

The author reminds that most of the prominent members of Azerbaijan’s civil society ended up behind bars or in exile. Even though some activists like the journalist Khadija Ismayilova, human rights lawyer Intigam Aliyev, or human rights activists Anar Mammadli and Rasul Jafarov have been released, their criminal records remain in place, and in the case of Intigam Aliyev, his travel ban as well. To this day, there are still around a hundred political prisoners in Azerbaijan.

“Azerbaijan is a “captured state” – a concept fathered by the IMF to describe a form of grand corruption. It means that the entire decision-making process and the state apparatus are used to serve private interests and the enrichment of a small caste of oligarchs. Azerbaijan is Europe’s most captured state. Its fragile economy rests solely atop its oil reserves. The oil and gas rent, however, does not seem to benefit anyone but the Aliyev clan and the vanity architectural works in Baku – partly Dubai-style pet projects, partly money laundering schemes,” writes the author.

However, the article insists that the opposition that once challenged Heydar Aliyev has survived, even though the civil society has been significantly repressed. “The opposition has observed Ukraine and Georgia and learnt from their successes and mistakes, and next time Ilham Aliyev’s power is shaken,” reads the article.