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There is an ever-present risk of escalations of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict at various levels, says Alexander Iskandaryan, a Yerevan-based political analyst.

“The April [flare-up] did not come from nowhere: there were experts predicting it. The violence was escalating and reducing starting from 2009-2010. It emerged gradually, with the April events making part of that circle. It was [a result of] Azerbaijan’s strategy and was not coincidence at all,” the analyst said.

“Then, it was possible to reduce violence. I would be happy to be mistaken but I think it is not possible to absolutely rule out frontline escalations.”

Iskandaryan stressed it is Azerbaijan’s strategy to combine Karabakh peace talks with border incidents, with the level of tensions stemming from several factors.

In the expert’s words, large-scale military actions should not be expected at the moment, stating Azerbaijan is not ready for them given the fact that the country’s military budget has cut down by three times.

Iskandaryan states the tools of political pressure used by the OSCE Minsk Group and the super powers are not enough to tackle the conflict, while no other tools are applied.