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No progress should be expected in the settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) conflict after Azerbaijan’s presidential election, says Alexander Iskandaryan, a Yerevan-based political analyst.

According to him, no real presidential election is taking place in Azerbaijan given the lack of genuine opposition participating in it. He stressed Azerbaijan is the country where people are arrested over social media posts and the political rhetoric is neutralized. 

“Election is when the process is known but the outcomes – not. We see no such thing there,” he said. “I do not think any progress should be expected in Karabakh settlement; the conflict is not at the phase to expect any breakthrough. The situation will remain approximately the same as today.”  

In Iskandaryan’s words, the super powers will continue taking efforts toward maintaining the status-quo. Armenia, or Artsakh itself, will try to strengthen the border and boost the military power, while Azerbaijan will not leave the negotiation process, at the same time combining it with border escalations.

According to the analyst, this is a long-term strategy adopted by Azerbaijan. He says it is a completely different matter at what extent the frontline tensions will increase or reduce, stressing the situation on the contact line is relatively calmer than previously.

“Turkey’s purchase of S-400 systems, or rather its advertising, since it is not still clear whether the purchase will be completed or not, is simply a game between Turkey and the West. It has no connection with the NK conflict,” he said.

The analyst did not rule out escalations, including major ones, on Artsakh frontline, as well as in the Nakhijevan section, meantime predicting low chances for them.