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After its fresh military provocations, or rather in the middle of them, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, to the surprise of many, dismissed long-time Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov after a public rebuke. It is true that the circle around him was tightening for several months, but it was a surprise that his resignation would come at that very moment and in such a humiliating manner.

The military failure of Azerbaijan in the July clashes once again showed the emptiness of Aliyev’s foreign policy, causing a major blow to the image of the country and Aliyev himself. The dismissal of the foreign minister was an attempt to remove the bitter weight of defeat from the army, whose militance was sharply declining as a result of the general's death, loss of expensive UAVs, and finally the senseless maneuver of the UAZ vehicle.

This time Aliyev was trying to justify the use of force through fruitless negotiations. It is not accidental that he said it publicly at the government meeting, where they were trying to "find Mammadyarov".

The point is that Aliyev complains that attempts have been made to reach agreements with Armenia and Artsakh amid the COVID-19 pandemic. This shows the inhuman personality of Aliyev.

When the international community was making efforts to establish a global ceasefire to effectively fight the pandemic, the Azerbaijani president, with the same motivation, reprimanded and humiliated his diplomatic service.

It is obvious that Azerbaijan's maximalist, inflexible and non-human-centered approach to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, which has turned into an obsession to return territories at all costs, is the main reason that the negotiations are stalled, leading to military outbursts.

Obviously, the Aliyev clan has a primary task of extending its grip on power and legitimizing it. The Armenophobia and the narrative of Karabakh's return play a key role in ensuring public support in that process.

And when many international experts are asking why now and why in Tavush, one should look to Baku, which has recently been expanding the geography of provocations to include the Armenian-Azerbaijan international border, targeting Nakhichevan in one case and Tavush in another in an effort to keep the conflict "hot" and show how instable the status quo can be.

Azerbaijan's strategy has not changed – to force the Armenian parties to make concessions through coercive diplomacy accompanied by the use of force or the threat of force. Such a "dangerous tug-of-war" provokes escalations with no results for Azerbaijan in July 2020, as it was the case in April 2016.

This Armenophobia, Aliyev’s absurd historical ambitions and arrogant confidence in their own truthfulness, would inevitably lead to a situation where the Azerbaijani authorities would lose touch with reality, which was evidenced by the pathetic, pitiful threats of the Azerbaijani authorities to strike the Armenian nuclear power plant.

This is not only a terrorist crime, but also shows that the country is out of the international community and does not share the basic principles and values governing cooperation between states.

In all this, Azerbaijan is unequivocally supported by Turkey, another country that has become a headache for the international community and regional security, posing threats to all its neighboring countries.

The unconditional support of the Turkish authorities for Azerbaijan's military ambitions shows how irresponsible that country is for regional security. Turkey is already incapable and does not even want to hide its imperialist ambitions, which should be of deep concern to players interested in maintaining both global and regional security.

This regular Azerbaijani aggression will significantly affect the peace process, which is already stalled. Aliyev continues to deepen the rift between the two countries and peoples, replacing trust-building efforts with various expensive but, as it has turned out, less useful weaponry.

The appointment of a foreign minister lacking diplomatic experience proves that Aliyev does not rely on negotiations and will continue to focus on the military solution. On the other hand, the weak foreign minister means that the foreign policy will be worked out exclusively by the presidential office, and Aliyev’s military fantasies are from now on free from even the slightest diplomatic restraints.