Analysis: What Pashinyan and Aliyev actually agreed on in Brussels?
Varuzhan Geghamyan (Ph.D.), an expert on the Middle East and the South Caucasus, has reflected on the statement following a trilateral meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, European Council President Charles Michel and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev held in Brussels on Sunday.
“I would like to explain what Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev actually agreed on in Brussels last night.
▪️ Armenia finally gives up the fight for Artsakh's status outside Azerbaijan. The statement makes no mention of Artsakh’s status. It only refers to the “rights and security of the ethnic Armenian population in Karabakh”, which at best implies Armenians living within Azerbaijan with the status of a national minority, but, in fact, the complete exodus of Armenians from Artsakh.
▪️ Moreover, the toponym "Nagorno-Karabakh", which was based on the concept of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, is no longer even used. The Brussels statement simply refers to it as the "Karabakh region", which is already based on the idea of administrative-territorial division of Azerbaijan, which does not assume any separate status.
▪️ A "peace treaty" with Azerbaijan is being prepared, the core of which is the recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, including its sovereignty over Artsakh. For this reason, only in the context of this treaty is there any mention of "ensuring the rights and security" of the Artsakh Armenians, since Artsakh will have no other status.
▪️ The statement notes that the parties agreed on the “principles governing transit between different parts of Armenia via Azerbaijan”. This vague wording actually means that Armenia will cede to Azerbaijan the so-called "enclaves" in Armenia’s Tavush and Ararat Provinces, through which the main roads connecting Ararat Province with Vayots Dzor and Syunik Provinces (the area of Tigranashen) as well as the roads linking the north and south of Tavush pass. They are also the highways leading to Iran and Georgia,” he wrote on Facebook on Monday.
“In other words, the areas will be handed over to Azerbaijan, after which we will have to get a special permission to travel from one region to another. It is worth recalling the case concerning the Goris-Kapan road, which suffered the same fate.
“It is necessary to fight against the implementation of these points, and then to deal with politics. There is a way to prevent the final Turkification of Artsakh and new territorial concessions. We need to stand up against the current capitulant authorities, form a government of national accord and get down to work through general mobilization.
“Different forces and individuals have now taken to the streets. If you do not find someone you can trust, form your teams and take to the streets to join the movement. Only then can we succeed,” the expert said.
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