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The European Union is on the brink of a major demographic shift as new projections suggest a significant population decline by the end of the century.

The estimates from Eurostat signal the bloc could see its population shrink by 6 per cent, or 27.3 million people, by 2100.

After two years of decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the EU’s population started recovering in 2022 and was estimated to have reached 451 million people in at the start of this year. This growth is largely attributed to the mass influx of Ukrainian refugees that followed Russia’s invasion of the country.

Now, the latest report from the EU’s statistics office projects the bloc’s population will continue to grow, peaking at 453 million people in 2026, before decreasing to 420 million in 2100.

The projection was established based on the continent’s fertility, mortality and migration patterns.

Europe in 2100: What does the future hold?

The 2100 population pyramid projects a shrinking and ageing society. The share of children, young people below 20, and those of working age will decline, while those aged 65 or more will grow.

In 2100, those aged 65 and over are set to account for 32 per cent of the population, compared to 21 per cent in 2022.

The projected population pyramid, as a result, will look much heavier on the top than today’s: there will be more people aged over 80 than people under 20.

The EU population is living longer and getting older

The share of the population aged 65 and over is already increasing in every EU member state and is in fact well ahead of China, where it stands at around 13 per cent.

According to the latest available data, the countries with the biggest share of the population aged 65 years and over are Italy (22.5 per cent), followed by Finland (22.7 per cent), Greece (22.5 per cent), Portugal (22.4 per cent) and Germany (22 per cent).

Over the last decade, countries that recorded the biggest increase in the share of the population aged 65 years and over were Finland, with an increase of 5.2 percentage points (pp), then Poland (5.1 pp) and Czechia (4.6 pp). An increase of 3 pp was observed for the EU as a whole.

According to Eurostat’s predictions, 2100 will see those aged 65 to 79 account for 17 per cent of the EU’s total population, compared with 15 per cent at the beginning of 2022. The share of those aged 80 years or more is also expected to more than double, from 6 per cent to 15 per cent.