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Water scarcity risks sparking conflict among European Union countries unprepared for a warming world, the bloc’s executive will warn next week, according to a leaked document obtained by POLITICO.

The stark message is part of a European Commission communiqué imploring EU governments to pick up the pace in their preparations to counter climate change, arguing they have fallen well short of what is necessary — a blunt warning that will serve as the EU’s last major climate initiative ahead of June’s bloc-wide elections.

In an undated draft of the text seen by POLITICO, the Commission identifies water shortages as an issue that threatens nearly every aspect of life: the food we eat, the water we drink and the infrastructure that powers and transports society, not to mention basic economic activities and human health.

“These risks can manifest in multiple forms, some of which include … increased competition over water resources across sectors and uses, including potential risk of conflicts within and among the Member States over transboundary water resources,” the draft states.

In general, the Commission says, the EU can expect “more disasters such as droughts, floods, wildfires, diseases, crop failures, heat deaths, infrastructure damage, and structural changes to the environment” — but warns that the bloc isn’t planning for those risks.

“Both the EU and its Member States must become significantly better at preparing for and effectively addressing climate risks,” the document says, cautioning that even when there are policies in place, “implementation currently falls short of providing reasonable assurance.” 

Regarding water-related risks, the Commission estimates that the EU could face €1.6 trillion in annual damages from coastal flooding. Since 1980, droughts and floods have cost the EU an estimated €9 billion and €170 billion a year, respectively.