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Armenia is unlikely to unfreeze its membership in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in 2025, the Foreign Intelligence Service said in its Annual Report on External Security Risks of the Republic of Armenia for 2025.

"The viability of military alliances will remain challenged. In this regard, contrary to the founding agreement regulations, the CSTO’s incapacity (non-viability) to respond to the issues in the South Caucasus that are within CSTO statutory objectives, highly likely will not change. We assess it as unlikely that in 2025 the reasons why Armenia froze its membership, will change. Based on this, we assess that the prestige of this organization will remain significantly questioned and a “food for thought” for other member states," the service said.

"The trend of increasing defense expenditure, arms procurement and development of the military industry by countries in and out of the region will be maintained. Therefore, a military response to problems will remain a primary modus operandi for the players of our smaller region as well. These circumstances will continue creating asymmetric risks for states with objectively small reserves of material and non-material resources such as Armenia.

"In 2025, regional and extra-regional actors’ race for regional infrastructure projects will most likely continue to fit into the logic of preserving or increasing their own political influence in the region, which might produce additional security risks for Armenia. Contrary to some centers, that view the regional unblocking in terms of competitive and political influences, Armenia considers regional unblocking not only as one of the components of peace agenda, but also as an opportunity to fully realize the potential of logistical and transit routes, the complete essence of which is reflected in the “Crossroads of Peace” project.

"The complete unblocking of the routes and transit opportunities with Türkiye and Azerbaijan is not only one of the key guarantees for regional stability, but, considering the current geopolitical and regional realities, it has a real potential to turn the region into one of the important and secure logistics hubs of Eurasia," reads the report.