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Panorama.am interviewed Sergei Melkonian, a historian, political analyst and research fellow at APRI Armenia, about the statements following Russia-U.S. negotiations in Saudi Arabia, U.S. President Donald Trump’s accusations against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the potential developments in this context.

Sergei Melkonian: Both sides have their own objectives. One of Russia’s key priorities is to restore high-level relations with the U.S. They believe this would allow them to address both regional and global issues – including the war in Ukraine – through a bilateral format, without the involvement of the EU or other international actors.

When it comes to the U.S., as Chinese strategist Sun Tzu said, the first step to winning a war is to weaken alliances. The U.S. understands that its policies have pushed Russia closer to China, Iran and North Korea. If we assume that the U.S. and Trump’s long-term strategic challenge is China, then weakening alliances that involve Beijing becomes essential. In this context, Russia plays a pivotal role.

Here, the interests of both countries align as Russia does not want to fall into China’s sphere of influence and seeks to resolve regional and global issues independently, while the U.S. wants to prevent the consolidation of a Russia-China alliance.

To resolve global issues, the two countries need to first rebuild trust in each other and restore high-level diplomatic and political dialogue. Another key factor for Russia is that the Transatlantic alliance is no longer what it was even three months ago in terms of alignment between U.S., EU and NATO agendas. If Russia succeeds in further dividing the alliance, it will be easier to resolve regional issues, first and foremost, in Ukraine.

Panorama.am: In a social media post on Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump made several accusations against Zelensky. Where could these accusations lead?

Sergei Melkonian: Trump accused Zelensky of lacking legitimacy, claiming that elections have not been held in Ukraine and that he does not represent the will of the Ukrainian people. Consequently, Russia sees no reason to negotiate with him.

Russia may later present this as a victory if there is a change of power in Ukraine, since one of its stated war objectives was “denazification”. If the current anti-Russian government is removed, the new leadership could accept Russia’s demands particularly regarding the language policy and the status of the church.