Fragile States Index - 2015: Armenia is in “Low Warning” list, while situation in Azerbaijan is "Worrying"
Non-profit organization The Fund for Peace and the influential American magazine Foreign Policy published Fragile States Index – 2015. Azerbaijan ranked the 80th, and its “fragility” level is considered to be ''worrying” with 77.3 points. Armenia got the 108th place and is among the countries with low risk level (69.7 points). The index is published on the website of The Fund for Peace.
The Index is based on the levels of stability, and the pressures the countries face. In terms of fragility, countries are distributed in 11 groups: very high alert (114.5 – 110.8 balls), high alert (109.7 - 100), alert (99.9 - 90), high warning (89.2 - 80), warning (79.9 - 70.5), low warning (69.7 -61.9), less stable (58.7 - 51), stable (49.3 – 40.9), more stable (39.8- 30.4), sustainable (29.7 - 20.2), very sustainable (17.8).
According to the website of the organization, all the 178 countries included in the Index were analyzed by Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST). The analysis is based on 12 indicators of fragility, which are combined into three groups: social, economic, and military and political. Among the social indicators are demographic pressures, refugees and IDPs, group grievance, humane flight. Economic indicators include uneven economic development and economic decline. Military and political indicators include state legitimacy, public services, human rights and rule of law, security apparatus, factionalized elites, external intervention.
Further, the experts analyzed the total information for each country and calculated the final index based on a scale from 0 (the highest degree of stability: the lowest possible risks and threats) to 10 (lowest degree of stability: the highest possible risks and threats) using tenths. The most "fragile" state in 2015 is South Sudan with 114.5 points. The most prosperous country is Finland. Russia is on the 65th place, Georgia got the 70th position with 19.3 points and is included in the ‘’warning’’ group. Turkey is in the same group and takes the 90th place. Iran ranks the 44th and is among the countries with "high warning" fragility level.
Fragile States Index is positioned as a comparative tool for risk assessment and forecasting of intra-state conflicts. The states are supposed to use the Index to analyze the problematic issues in their policies. It also provides early warnings of conflicts in their territories and can help fragile countries to develop strategies that could reduce the likelihood of a conflict.
Related:
Armenia ranks 91st in Global Peace Index, Azerbaijan in 132nd position